May 30, 2010

NIFTY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR LAST WEEK


NIFTY DAILY CHART

  • NIFTY HAS MADE A REVERSAL FROM CHANNEL BOTTOM. MACD HAS NOT GIVEN A BUY YET. 
  • AS YOU CAN SEE THE LAST TWO TIMES WHEN NIFTY CAME CLOSE TO THE CHANNEL BOTTOM IT COMBINED WITH MACD CROSSOVER TO GIVE A GOOD REVERSAL
  • I AM EXPECTING IT TO HAPPEN AGAIN. BUT HAS RESISTANCE AROUND 5080. 
  • IT MAY GO DOWN A BIT FROM CURRENT LEVELS.
  • BUT THE CORRECTION FROM HERE MAY NOT BE TOO LARGE AND AN UP MOVE FOLLOWED BY THE BREAKING OF 5080 WILL TAKE NIFTY TO NEW HIGH'S.
THANK YOU

4 comments:

  1. San,

    Just a question - why do you think this will not crash back towards 4600 or below?

    Even MACD can go through Whipsaws right?

    Regards,
    Girish

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  2. Your macd is slightly off. I feel this is important because 1. it is roughly 200 pts. 2. MACD is a lagging indicator ( by a decent margin ). By the chart, MACD crossover ( still not confirmed ) happenned on Friday. Not Tue/Wed. Same for other points also. There is just no indicator that can call the bottom/top. Since most indicators are based on prices/averages/volumes.

    My 2 cents.


    gd
    http://safegamble.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Girish Desai
    Please read my comments again i am expecting it to happen. I have said that the probability is more towards upside. MACD can also give whipsaws. But when ever the crossover comes i have this habit of trusting this indicator especially in the daily time frame. Of course with stop loss because any one can go wrong.

    @Golfdude
    The MACD has not given a crossover. you are right no indicator can predict the market. But you can predict the highest probability trade. And then have stop loss. And as i said if MACD gives a cross over along with reversal from channel bottom. That is a high probability trade. This one also with stop loss.

    thank you

    ReplyDelete
  4. San,

    Thanks for your comments! I would totally agree with you that its all about probability - given current data - come up with best guess.

    Will look forward to the unfolding of events in the next few months or so.

    Regards,
    Girish

    ReplyDelete