August 9, 2011

CHART-III
CHART-II
  • ES has broken the rising support line.
  • Staying below 1096 can extend this correction
CHART-I
  • ES Sustaining above 1161.50 will favor bulls.
  • Below 1096 there may be a Dip in favor of bears.
  • Price breaking the falling resistance line will be the first sign of strength.
  • Silver may give a short trade below 37.77.
  • Above 39.61 and 40.38 long trades are possible.
  • Since its a descending triangle short trades are preferred.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • Today's up move is halted near 50 Hour moving average.
  • Bulls need to make another attempt to break above the 50 Hour moving average.
  • Price need to stay above 50 Hour moving average and cloud for the trend to change.
  • As long as price stays below the cloud it is sell on rise.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • Nifty today started Moving up without hitting the support line shown in chart.
  • It would be better for bulls if price comes back to hit the support line and then gives an up move. Then we may see a bigger up move then what we saw today.
  • But there is no guarantee that price will hold this line if it comes back. We can try a long trade if we see reversal from this line like what we saw today.
  • Breaking this support line will favor bears.
  • NIFTY AND S&P 500 FUTURES 5 MINUTES CHART
  • 5 Minutes chart of Nifty Moving with S&P 500 Futures
  • S&P 500 Futures 5 Minutes chart shows bullish momentum after a long time.
  • Hour chart is also showing good recovery. But price is still below 50 Hour moving average and cloud, So bulls has to do more to change the trend.
CHART-II
CHART-I
  • NIFTY near yesterday's Low which is 5054.
  • Holding above this level may extend the recovery.
  • This level may act as resistance as well.
  • Pattern breakdowns from weekly time frame can give explosive moves. That's what we are witnessing. 
  • In weekly chart price is moving down from 23.6% Fib level to 38.6% Level.
  • It will be difficult to predict a bottom for this move. Next likely level may be between 4775 - 4800 level. 
  • Those bears who are about to get good profits should book some profits. Since price is falling fast we are likely to see quick up moves as well.
  • We Saw one of the worst days in Wall street's history as far as points goes yesterday night. Dow Closed 634 points down which was the 6th worst day in its history. See the EOD analysis for S&P 500 in the below link.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • Bears are inflicting as much pain as possible.
  • They have violated important weekly levels (200 Week Moving average and Cloud support in weekly chart) as shown in first two charts. Last time these levels were broken back in 2008.
  • Next hope for bulls is the 38.2% Fib level were this index may take a pause.
  • 30 Minutes chart shows that every small bounce is being sold off.
  • ES DESCENDING TRIANGLE UPDATED

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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore