June 30, 2010

  • 15 minutes SPX is showing an inverse h/s possibility.
  • With neck line around 1048.
  • Break out can give 1055 and more.
UPDATED CHART
  • S&P 500 is forming a consolidation pattern in 15 minutes chart.
  • break out on the upside can give target of 1050.
  • The formation is a triangle so beware of false break outs.
CLICK THE CHART TO ENLARGE
  • Positive divergence in moving average oscillator is clearly visible here.
  • A pull back towards 1050 - 1055 levels cannot be ruled out.
  • Break of 1045 could lead to 1050 and 1055 levels.
EUR/USD HOUR CHART

  • EUR/USD is making a reversal attempt in hour chart.
  • The pair has to close above the cloud for confirming the bullishness
  • If it succeeds in its attempt of  a short term reversal it will be good for equity markets.
  • Close above the trend line would be very positive for nifty.
UPDATED CHART
CLICK THE CHART TO ENLARGE
  • Triangle formation in nifty futures hourly chart.
  • I feel if the positional bull in nifty is to survive this pattern breakout should be a failed one.
  • As long as the price does not close above the bottom line of the triangle the bears will stay alive for the next down move.
  • when the entire world is in pain it is odd for the nifty to be resilient like this.
  • I think this is a bull trap.
NIFTY FUTURES HALF HOUR CHART
CLICK THE CHART TO ENLARGE
  • The chart is marked with support and resistance lines in 30 minutes chart.
  • It also shows a possible break out point.
  • Today will be a gap down because of the global market situation.
  • I am expecting this down move to be stopped at the bottom support line

June 29, 2010

HOUR CHART OF S&P 500
CLICK TO ENLARGE THE CHART
  • When price deviates from an important moving average it tries to catch up with the moving average either with a reversal or with a sideways correction.
  • Especially when the move down or move up is very swift the opposite move to catch up with the moving average will happen with a reversal. 
  • This is not a thumb rule but has seen it happen many times in charts. 
CLICK AND ENLARGE THE CHART TO SEE THE LEVELS CLEARLY
  • I have plotted the Moving Average Oscillator here with the 4 hour chart of Dow Futures
  • It  shown two negative divergences that has happened in the same time frame.
  • At present it is developing a positive divergence. Before taking a trade please note that all divergences should have price confirmation
  • Dow Jones is moving away from the 50 week moving average. If the week closes at these levels or lower than these then surely going down to sub 9000 levels.
  • We can clearly see a rising wedge in this weekly chart so according to this pattern Dow should go down much lower than 9000 levels.
  • But there is a crucial support between 9700 and 9800 let's see if that holds. Bulls will be hoping for that but when a bear market sets in these number just don't work.
  • The triangle that formed yesterday in thirty minutes chart gave a gap down opening today.
  • Mainly because of the Eur/Usd channel break.
  • EUR/USD Hourly channel update

DOW JONES FUTURES

S&P 500 FUTURES

  • Eur/Usd Channel breaks and the pair is gaining downward momentum.
  • Look at the result below European markets are down more than 2%
WORLD MARKETS UPDATE
MARKETS CURRENT CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE

UK 100

4966

-2.08%

FRANCE 40

3477

-2.80%

GERMANY 30

6016

-2.30%

JAPAN NI225

9571

-1.27%

HANG SEN 40

20210

-2.49%


WEEKLY CHART

DAILY CHART

DAILY CHART WITH FIBS

30 MINUTES CHART TRIANGLE

  • 30 Minutes chart is showing a triangle which gave a false break out on the upside today.
  • Daily chart fibonacci levels for the rise from 9757 to 10594 has retraced till its 61.8% level. 
  • Daily chart is trading well below its 50 day and 200 day moving averages. And as each day passes by the death cross possibility is coming closer and closer because 50 day is nearing 200 day moving average, The cross of 50 day below 200 day moving average will confirm the death cross, which is a very bearish event.
  • The weekly chart is showing another day closing below the 50 week moving average.
  • Nifty Hour chart with a violated channel.
  • Stochastic has come to the oversold region and has given a buy signal.
  • Will that be enough to take the market higher?
  • I think if it end like this tomorrow should be a gap up or gap down scenario.
  • Nifty futures 15 minutes channel with broken channel.
NIFTY FUTURES HOURLY CHANNEL

  • Nifty Futures hour chart channel breaks
  • If it closes below the channel it will be negative for the index.
  • Wait for the candle to close before taking any decision. It may get back into the channel as well.
HOURLY CHART
  • Eur/Usd has broken the channel it was trading in
  • As there is good correlation between equity markets and eur/usd pair these day's this event will be negative for the financial markets.
  • If this does not recover before U.S markets opens then a gap down is for sure in dow jones.
UPDATED CHART
  • NIFTY is back in to the channel.
  • If 5300 holds there is a possibility of an inverse head and shoulder pattern
_______________________________________________________________________________

CLICK THE CHART TO ENLARGE
  • Nifty futures hourly chart is shown above. The price it seems has broken above the channel but it has to stay there for bullishness to continue. 
  • The opening candle for today would be very important. If it trades and closes above the channel that would be positive for nifty.
  • If it comes back into the channel that would be negative.
  • For a safe entry one shall wait for the first One hour to get a clear direction.
  • The U.S Markets and the EUR/USD was looking weak overnight. But nifty seems to be looking better than those markets.
30 MINUTES CHART
DAILY CHART

WEEKLY CHART

  • The triangle in 30 minutes shows a break down.
  • S&P 500 is looking weaker than DOW JONES. If the death cross is about to happen it will happen first in S&P 500. As the 50 day is nearing the 200 day moving average.
  • And the weekly chart shows that the price has to close above the 50 week moving average for bullishness to comeback.during this week. 

June 28, 2010

UPDATED CHARTS OF THE BELOW POST
DOW JONES TRIANGLE

EUR/USD CHANNEL 
  • The triangle gives a false break out.
  • The eur/usd channel has broken. An hourly close below the channel will confirm the breakdown

___________________________________________________________________
DOW JONES TRIANGLE
EUR/USD CHANNEL


  • The fate of the Triangle will be decided by the channel.
  • If the channel gets support and followed by an up move the triangle will get an upside breakout.
  • If the channel Breaks its support line and closes below it,  the triangle will dow the same.
  • It seems Dow Jones has taken support at 10100 area and now the hour chart looks positive.
  • But has resistance points on its way.
  • First is 10200 if a successful close above that is made then comes the resistance band of 10260 to 10320 closing above this will be crucial for bulls.
HOURLY CHART

  • I have shown the Nasdaq composite indexes hourly chart above.
  • See how it trades in channels and now it is trading near the bottom of the main channel.
  • A Bounce from a range of  2185-2215 can be expected.
  • One should keep 2185 as stop loss because a close below 2185 means a large correction will follow.
  • But for now one should try to take a low risk high reward trade here with 2185 as stop loss on closing basis.
EUR/USD WITH 50 DMA
EUR USD WITH ICHIMOKU CLOUD

  • The first chart shows Eur/Usd reversal attempts combining with 50 DMA. 
  • White arrows show how the pair got sold off from the 50 DMA. The pair is doing a similar set up now.
  • The second chart shows the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud. Even if the 50 DMA is taken out the cloud is looming large. Only a beak out and close above the cloud can be called as a valid reversal till then the pair will get sold off at every bounce.
UPDATED CHART
CLICK THE CHART TO ENLARGE

  • Nifty Futures hourly channel is shown above.
  • The channel has given support twice. and the top line of the channel has acted as resistance as well.
  • And on friday it has taken support at the bottom line of the channel take a look at the long shadow of the last hour candle.
  • Let's see if the support is able to give a gap up for nifty
  • I posted a 5 minutes chart few days ago with support and resistance lines
  • I believe those supports and resistance might help the traders again 
  • This is nifty futures chart not spot.
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM MONTH CHART
BHARAT PETROLEUM MONTH CHART

  • The charts shown here are monthly chart of bharat petroleum and hindustan petroleum.
  • See how the dragon fly doji appears in the monthly chart in april itself.
  • Smart money has entered these stocks months ago while the news broke out last week.
  • So some profit booking may take place in these stocks before they take off again.
DAILY CHARTS OF EUR/USD PAIR

  • EUR/USD is trading close to its 50 day moving average.
  • It coincides with a resisting trend line too so good place to short here.
  • Even if it break above, The the daily ichimoku cloud which has been holding euro below it since it broke down below 1.47 is a resistance too large to break.
  • So if the pair has to reverse all the three above resistance has to be broken.

June 27, 2010

UPDATED CHART
WEEKLY CHART

DAILY CHART
  • Reliance communication has made a break out.
  • But the volume in daily chart is not supporting. The stock may move ahead despite low volume.
  • And look at the weekly chart it is just above its 50 week moving average. Sustaining above this is vital for the stocks next move.

______________________________________________________________________
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION WEEKLY CHART
Fundamental View
Reliance Communication Ltd and its subsidiary, Reliance Infratel Ltd and GTL Infrastructure Ltd have approved in principle Rs 50000 crore deal. This deal would create the world's largest independednt telecom infrastructure company.Reliance communication will benefit from cash infution which can be used for reducing its debt. And 2 million reliance communication share holders will receive listed shares of GTL Infra.

Technical View.
Reliance communication is on the verge of a break out at 192 one close above 192 will push the stock towards its next target of 230.
Break out above 192 and close should happen with good volume increase.
Related Article.
GTL INFRA LTD BREAKS OUT




June 26, 2010

  • The line chart is showing a broadening bottom formation
  • This pattern has 2 possibilities.
  • First one the price will break the two supports i have mentioned and test the bottom line of the broadening formation and then a major reversal.
  • Second possibility may start from next week. Price tested the upper trend line and has come down to the middle portion of the pattern it may reverse from here to break the upper trend line.
Thanks to Yelnick for sharing my chart with his readers: CLICK HERE TO SEE NIFTY CHARTS IN YELNICK'S BLOG

Disclaimer

All the contents of niftychartsandpatterns are for educational purposes only and are not Investment Advice or recommendations offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures. Niftychartsandpatterns shall not be held responsible for the actions of individuals, parties, or corporations taken in response to the ideas, thoughts, concepts or information presented in this blog. Hence all the visitors are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial or investment adviser before acting on any of the Ideas in this blog.

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