August 3, 2011

  • Price is trying to move up in smaller time frames.
  • But the bigger trend is still down.
  • So Intraday longs will face selling pressure at higher levels.
  • Price still below 50 period moving average and cloud so sell on rise.
  • QQQ 5 minutes is in a descending channel pattern.
  • Breakout with good volumes may give an up move.
  • Crude oil is staying below its 50 Day Moving Average.
  • Price fell below its support level of 94.63 and is likely to hit 89.60 levels.
  • Bigger correction may happen only if price stays below 89.60.
  • If price takes support here crude oil will stay in this broad range of 89 - 99 with 94 as the mean.
  • SPX Violates 1249 level.
  • Daily candle closing below this level will be perfect for bears to push price down further. 
  • Closing below 1249 will make the reversal attempts hard to sustain.
  • SPX near 1250 level. Last fall of SPX took support at this level.
  • Worrying thing for bulls is the price momentum.
  • Price is also moving away from 200 DMA. Second chart clearly shows the last fall took place above 200 DMA. This time price has fallen below 200 DMA.
  • So bulls need to get back above 200 DMA otherwise all bounces will get sold off.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • ES weekly chart with Bollinger bands
  • Price has hit the lower bollinger band.
  • Last fall in june was arrested by the weekly lower bollinger band.
  • Week candle closing below the lower Bollinger band will help bears to extend gains. Week candle closing above lower bollinger band may give hopes for bulls for a bounce.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
CHART-II (UPDATED)
CHART-I
  • Falling Wedge of silver has given good profits for bulls of silver.
  • 41.40 levels may act as resistance now.
  • Nifty is moving around the Golden Ratio. Next leg down will happen if this level does not hold. Closing below 5400 will make things easier for bears.
  • We saw price staying below 50 Hour moving average yesterday. It continues to trend lower below this moving average.
  • Bulls should hope for a close above 5450 at least.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • Nifty Staying below 5450 nifty is likely to test 5400 - 5410 levels today. Closing below 5400 - 5410 levels will favor bears for sometime to come. If nifty manage to Close above 5450 despite bad news then things might favor bulls.
  • U.S markets have closed negative. Dow Broke 12000 level. S&P 500 closed below 200 DMA. 
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • S&P 500 Breaks a major trend line in weekly chart.
  • Price also closes well below the 200 dma.
  • We shall see how SPX behaves the next support level which is 1230 - 1245 level. Things are likely to be easier for bears.
  • ES RANGE BREAKDOWN TRADE

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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore