August 31, 2010

CHART - I
  • Dow Futures broke 9965 and gave a long trade as discussed below.
  • Now next resistance is at 10064 above that may rally towards the channel resistance line.
CHART - II
  • Dow Jones futures breaking 9965 was negative for the bulls.
  • Now if the index trades above 9965 convincingly a long trade is possible
CHART - II
  • Nifty bounces from 5360 levels as discussed below.

CHART - I

  • Nifty futures may give a long trade from 5360 levels.
  • One can keep a stop loss of 5346 for this trade.
  • Nifty did a gap up on Monday but faced selling pressure throughout the day and closed near the recent lows.
  • the index has closed below 20 DMA. It is testing 50 DMA. Closing below 50 DMA will test important support areas.
  • U.S. markets also ended in the negative territory which may give a gap down for us.
  • S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
  • Upper trend line of the channel seems to be too strong to break.
  • Most of the gains made by the bulls on Friday has been taken off 
  • Now the 20 DMA and 50 DMA is ready to give a negative cross over. So some more down side possible.
  • The direction will be decided once the range in hourly chart discussed earlier in this post gives direction

August 30, 2010

  • Dow Jones is trending down in a channel in 10 minutes time frame.
  • The current down move may find support at 10040 levels. If 10040 level does not hold then the correction will be large.
CHART - 2
  • 20 Hour moving average broken and the index is moving towards the lower end of the range as discussed below.
CHART - I
  • S&P 500 may trade in a range of 1039 - 1065 for sometime to come.
  • Right now the index is resting at the 20 hour moving average and below 50 hour moving average.
  • If 20 hour moving average does not give support index may move to the lower end of the trading range.
CHART - II
  • If The white line in the channel breaks correction can extend to 9900 levels

CHART - I

  • Dow Jones futures has hit the resistance line and is going down.
  • It seems the resistance line is too hard to break for now. 
  • 10040 is a very important support zone. 
CHART - 2
  • Nifty futures broke 5425 and is moving down to test the support line at the lower end of the range mentioned in the below chart.
  • NF may give a long trade from here. But one has to be careful, if 5396 breaks NF may correct further.
CHART - I
  • Nifty futures is showing a range of 5396 - 5461
  • 5425 is the mean. 5425 is the low point for today till now.
  • If 5425 breaks NF can slide to the lower end of the range.
  • If 5461 breaks NF will favour bulls.
  • Bears of reliance industries seems to be too strong.
  • Price continue to go down. Stock is trading below 50 DMA, 20DMA and even 5 day low and high ema's. It is consistently closing below these moving averages.
  • Since the stock is coming down after breaking a triangle, every rise will be faced with selling pressure as the stock is facing now. Break of 1007 was a great place to short. Again I suggested to go short at 958 in this POST, stock on friday made an intraday low of 946.
  •  Adding to this there are good trend lines have formed as overhead resistance. I have shown it in 2nd chart.
  • The only hope perhaps for the bulls is the positive divergence that's developing in daily chart which can negate all the negative things that i have mentioned above.
  • RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LIVE CHART WITH EMA
  • TATA STEEL has been  down trend ever since it broke down from the big channel in its daily chart as i have shown in the first chart. And right now there is a continuation pattern developing here. Breakdown of 500 levels and a close below 500 will confirm that.
  • Stock is in a trading range of 449 to 553. Right now the stock is moving down within this range.
  • Since the stock is oversold the daily stochastic may give a buy signal by moving above 20% line, combine that with a short term trend line break in daily chart which may give a rally towards the top of the range. Those who are stuck in longs bought at the top of the range can use this to exit.
  • Stock will not be positive unless it breaks 553 convincingly. 
  • TATA STEEL INTRADAY LIVE CHART WITH EMA

August 29, 2010

  • Nifty's negative divergence is starting to show its effect. The channel support line is broken. RSI support line is also broken.
  • We have a convincing close below 5 day low ema. 
  • Index has closed below 20 day sma. But the down move was halted by the 50 sma on friday. If index continues to trade above 50 sma we may see another up move from here.
  • The third chart shows the main support line for nifty. The support line will be tested if 50 sma gets broken. If that line gets broken we have a major trend change in nifty daily chart.
  • TATA STEEL TECHNICAL VIEW

August 28, 2010

  • S&P 500 closed up 17.37 points or 1.66%
  • A near 2% rally in S&P 500 but still the index remains inside the channel which is trending down. Today's price action may give some hopes for the bulls to try and break out of the channel resistance line on monday. But that is not an easy thing to do especially because of the overhead resistances in the form of 50 DMA and 20 DMA. If there is no follow up buying on monday price will start declining towards the bottom of the channel.

August 27, 2010

  • S&P 500 will hit the resistance line in 4 hour chart if it continues today's trend which is up.
  • Index will struggle to cross 1065-1070 levels. If this level is crossed successfully we can see good momentum towards the upside
CHART - 2
  • Dow Jones futures is approaching 10100 level. Index got resisted at this area in the recent past.
  • A big move on the upside will be possible on a good breakout of this level.
  • If the index gets resisted at this level. It will trade in a range as discussed below
CHART - 1
  • Dow Jones futures is trading in a range of 185 points. with 10101 being the resistance and 9916 the recent low will be the support.
  • Break of 10101 can give good upside momentum for the index. Break of 9916 convincingly can take the index up to 9830 levels.
TARGET ACHIEVED
CHART - 2
  • Nifty futures is testing 5456 support line. Break down from this area can take it down to 5420 levels
CHART - 1

  • Nifty futures have been trading in a range of 5456 and 5487 since yesterday.
  • Bulls tried in vain to break 5487 many times.
  • Now the index is moving towards the lower end of the range. 
  • A clear direction may emerge only on a strong breakout from this range.
  • NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE IN NIFTY SPOT

  • Negative divergence can be clearly seen in nifty's daily chart in MACD and RSI.
  • See how the channel of nifty is going up and the channel in RSI going sideways with a negative bias.
  • One may get a good clue if the bottom support line of RSI breaks early. That may be the start of nifty's big correction. 
  • For negative divergence price confirmation is very important in this case nifty may move upwards again before correcting.
  • Nifty has closed above 20 SMA and above 5 day low ema. Price is also trading within the boundaries of the channel discussed early.
  • Thank you S.Kumar for asking about the negative divergence. I spotted the Channel in RSI because of that.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL


  • 1050 gave good support for S&P 500 on closing basis. That has been violated now. 
  • Price is trading below 200, 50 and 20 DMA.
  • 20 DMA is approaching the 50 DMA. So we can expect a big  move in either direction.
  • If the negative cross happens 20 DMA crossing 50 DMA that will be bad news for the bulls.
  • On the contrary this can also be a fast raise set too.

August 26, 2010

  • Dow Jones hits the trend line in 4 hour chart and is heading down.
  • If 9988 breaks that could lead to 9939.
  • Bulls should try to stay above this trend line otherwise a sell off is unavoidable. 
  • LIVE INTRADAY CHART FOR DOW JONES WITH EMA
  • S&P 500 is finding support around 1050 on closing basis.
  • So bulls are safe above 1050. 
  • But if it slips below 1050 it can slide to 1040. 
  • LIVE INTRADAY CHART FOR S&P 500
  • Dow Jones futures made a good recovery today from the low of 9916.
  • For today's trading session if the index continue to trade above 10032 a good rally is possible on the upside.
  • The rally also means price entering the falling wedge pattern which is good news for the bulls. 
  • Support line of the wedge can act as the resistance, 10138 level can also act as a resistance on the upside.
CHART- 3
CHART - 2
CHART - 1
  • Nifty futures hourly chart should give good direction soon.
  • Price is trading close to support and resistance lines
  • Look at the volumes, index is trading with very low volume.
  • look for a volume spike along with a breakout in both spot and futures to get in.
  • CLICK HERE FOR LIVE CHART OF NIFTY
  • Tata steel line chart looks bearish as the stock has broken down from a channel.
  • This can also be a bearish flag pattern in daily chart.
  • Below 500 tata steel stock will face selling pressure.
  • If the bulls need to come back the stock should trade convincingly above 510. Then the pattern will become a busted pattern which can give a rally on the upside.
  • For now any rally will face resistance at 510. Below 500 bears will be very safe to hold on to their short positions.
  • LIVE INTRADAY CHART FOR TATA STEEL
  • Nifty has closed below 5 day low ema.
  • Nifty is trading close to its 20 day moving average.
  • Index is still trading inside the up trending channel.  a daily close below the support line of the channel can give a large correction.
  • In recent times when ever the index closed below 5 day low ema and 20 day moving average it has managed to make a comeback. But when the trend decides to changes this may not happen. One should trade with caution.
  • S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL

Disclaimer

All the contents of niftychartsandpatterns are for educational purposes only and are not Investment Advice or recommendations offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures. Niftychartsandpatterns shall not be held responsible for the actions of individuals, parties, or corporations taken in response to the ideas, thoughts, concepts or information presented in this blog. Hence all the visitors are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial or investment adviser before acting on any of the Ideas in this blog.

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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore