December 28, 2011

  • Negative divergence finally gives a meaningful correction for bears.
  • Price sustaining below 50 Hour SMA will extend this correction. 
  • 100 Hour SMA may act as next support level. We may see a bounce from this level.

  • 50 Hour SMA continue to act as support for ES during this up move.
  • Resistance levels continue to get broken as shown in the 2nd chart.
  • Divergence was shown yesterday But the corrections are shallow.
  • Price closing below 50 Hour SMA may lead to a bigger correction.

  • First chart is U.S Dollar Month time frame shown with ichimoku cloud.
  • Price is unable to move above the cloud. Month closing below the cloud will be negative.
  • Daily chart is shown with a trend line. Holding this trend line U.S Dollar may give another up move. U.S Dollar has negative Divergence as shown in the Previous Post of U.S Dollar. Breaking below the trend line will extend correction.

  • Nifty hour chart with 200 and 50 Hour SMA
  • Up move was resisted at 200 Hour SMA.
  • Now price is testing 50 hour SMA.
  • hour candles closing below 50 hour SMA will turn the trend in favor of bears. For bulls price need to stay above 50 hour SMA.

  • Bank Nifty Weekly chart seems to have bottomed for now. Supporting bullish candle formed at the parallel line can give good bounce. Having said that  A retest of the lows is possible if 5 Day Low EMA gets broken on closing basis. If that down move comes with positive divergence we may see a larger bounce for next series. For Bulls price has to break above 20 Day SMA and the resistance line of daily chart.

  • CNX IT is consolidating between 50 Day SMA and 200 Day SMA. Breakout on either side on closing basis may give good direction. Bullish attempts are getting failed So bears seems to have good risk reward ratio. Having said that it's no use anticipating a move so lets wait for crucial levels or moving averages mentioned in the charts to be violated on closing basis.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore