May 5, 2011

  • SLV Four hour chart has fallen below the cloud.
  • Price has fallen with high volume.
  • Sideways to negative trend will continue in SLV until price remains below the cloud.
  • ES Four hour chart with fibonacci levels shows price near 50% Retrace, Price falling below this level can take ES to 1322 level today.
  • Sustaining above 50% can result in a bounce in favor of bulls.
  • Price has fallen below 200 Hour moving average. For bulls price has to come back above this level for bigger up moves to happen.
  • SLV ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
  • Resistance line of ES seen in hour chart seems to be too strong. Price is falling down every time it hits this trend line.
  • Price is trending down below the cloud.
  • Trend in hour chart will turn in favor of bulls only if price manage to break and sustain above the cloud.
  • SLV ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
CHART-II
  • Nifty is trying to form a range near the golden ratio shown in the below chart.
  • Price Moving out of this range can give the next direction.
  • It can be 5342 or an upper breakout can give 5561 levels according to Fib levels.
CHART-I
  • Nifty fibonacci levels for the rise from 5177 to 5944.
  • Price has reached 61.8% Fib level.
  • For bears to extend gains they should break the Golden ratio.
  • For bulls consolidation here can give a short term relief.
  • On weekly closing basis nifty is still trading in a range as shown in weekly chart. Once the range was violated and nifty went till 6300 and now price has come back into the range. The range which looks like an ascending channel is creating higher supports which is good for the long term bulls. Lets see how the following weeks close.
  • Day chart shows bulls holding onto a trend line. Once push will take them below 5500 and the next important stop is near 5410 level.
  • SLV Hour is falling down in a narrow channel.
  • Price has closed below 200 Hour moving average which is very negative for the bulls. Last time price made a bullish cross above this moving average was at 28.
  • Price has closed just above its 50 day moving average. Problem for the bulls is momentum of bears. From 48 to 38 it took only 4 daily candles, alarming signs for the bulls unless they hold on to 50 day moving average.

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My Favourite Quote

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore