May 4, 2011

  • SPY Fibonacci levels for the rise from 129.51 to 137.18
  • Today's fall has taken support exactly at 38.2% Fib level
  • Now the next leg down will happen when 38.2% gets broken Momentum of this fall then may take price to the Golden ratio(61.8%) which is near 132.44 level.
  • Staying above 38.2% and breaking 23.6% will favor bulls.
  • Bulls shall try to stay above 1348 level.
  • Bears will gain Momentum below 1342 level.
  • For now the structure in Hourly chart has turned against the bulls.
  • SILVER Hour chart shows a possible falling wedge reversal pattern.
  • If a breakout happens in favor of bulls price should break and sustain above 50 hour moving average for pattern to be successful.
  • Breaking the support line of the wedge will favor bears of silver.
  • ES has broken below 50 hour moving average and is now threatening to break the 200 Hour moving average.
  • Price breaking and sustaining below 200 Hour moving average can give good correction.
  • Next support zone below 200 hour moving average is between 1335 - 1336 level.
  • Price sustaining above 50 hour moving average will favor bulls.
  • SPY HOUR CHART ANALYSIS
  • Nifty futures chart with the trend line.
  • Price has for now stopped falling, Trend line seems to be working for now.
  • But things may change if NF falls below 5500 again.
  • Nifty is approaching the support line of a possible triangle pattern in weekly chart.
  • If price gets support here we may see an up move.
  • But weekly charts looks bearish after price falling below 20 week and 50 week moving average. Week closing below these moving averages will favor bears. Bulls may hope that nifty does a turn around and close the weak above 50 and 20 week moving averages.
  • 20 and 50 week moving averages will confirm a bearish crossover. Last time these two moving averages gave a bullish cross when nifty was trading at 3478 level.
  • BEARISH CANDLES OF DOW JONES
  • Price closes above 10 day moving average.
  • Price has not tested the breakout level which is at 1344 level.
  • Hour chart just managed to close above 50 hour moving average.
  • SPY Hour for now has taken a pause at the 50 Hour moving average.
  • For bears price should break 50 Hour moving average and sustain below 23.6% Fibonacci level for the correction to continue.

Disclaimer

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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore