November 22, 2011

  • SPY moving up from 50% Fib level.
  • For bulls price has to break above 50 Day SMA for this up move to sustain.
  • For bears of silver the rising support line shown in first chart should break.
  • For bulls price need to stay above 100 Hour SMA and above 32.60 levels.
  • Gold is near its 200 Day SMA. If takes support near this level gold may give good up move. Closing below 200 SMA will be negative for Gold.
  • Price is also putting up a Consolidation pattern on closing basis. Breakout from this pattern too can give good direction. If 200 SMA is protected on closing basis then the up move will resume.
  • ES continue to stay below 50 hour SMA were its easy for bears to push price downwards.
  • For bulls an up move will be possible only if they are able to break above the trend line and 50 Hour SMA.
  • Hour charts shows price still inside the descending channel.
  • 20 and 50 Hour moving average still favor bears.
  • Price has to stay above 20 Hour SMA for today's up move to extend.
  • Momentum of price on the downside is strong. So there is no guarantee that this level is going to hold. Up moves should be able to sustain above day low ema for confirming strength. Breach of the support level at 4720 area on closing basis might take price towards the support line of the channel.
  • When everyone expect market to hit and turn from a particular level, market may behave differently. Either it goes up without reaching that level or It breaches the support for a while to trap fresh shorts and then move up. So one shall be careful at these levels.
  • SPX Week, Day and Hour are looking weak. 1220 - 1230 level will act as stiff resistance if bulls try for a pull back.
  • Price staying below 100 Week SMA can give deeper correction. Daily chart has confirmed weakness on closing basis by closing below 50 Week SMA.
  • Now the Fib retrace levels from 1074 - 1292 may save bulls from deeper correction which is the only hope left, as of today price has stopped at 50% Fib level.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore