November 30, 2010

CHART-II
  • The broken resistance level of 5855 - 5870 is acting as support now.
  • Bulls are safe as long as NF does not go below 5855
CHART-I
  • Nifty Futures should trade above the resistance band of 5855 - 5870.
  • Price should sustain above the black trend line for this up move to continue.
  • Dip below 5855 will be negative.
  • First chart shows nifty taking support near 100 DMA. But we have to see for how long this support last. If price consolidates here without making new lows an up move is possible.
  • Second chart shows a narrow down trending channel of nifty spot. Breakout of the resisting trend line can give an up move.
  • DOW JONES EOD ANALYSIS

DOW JONES 5 MINUTES CHART
DOW JONES HOUR CHART
DOW JONES DAILY CHART
  • Range in 5 minutes chart gave a good entry today when it gave an up side breakout as shown in the first chart.
  • Range in hour chart was Violated but Price went back into the range before closing. But the fact that the range was violated should be a negative factor unless price decides to breakout above the range.
  • Daily chart shows price violating the 50 DMA. Despite price coming back to close near the high of the day closing was a just below the 50 DMA.

November 29, 2010

CHART-II
  • ES Violated the triangle but took support between 1170 and 1174 for now.
  • Now for Bulls price should trade above 1180. It it does not sustain above 1180 we may see a retest of today's low.
  • Larger correction will be possible only if 1174 and 1170 gets broken.
CHART-I
  • ES Triangle pattern in four hour chart
  • Price is trading near the support line of the triangle
  • This may act as support zone.
  • Price may break the triangle support line too. Break of the Trend line should take out 1174 and 1170 for a bigger correction to take place.
  • DOW JONES WEEKEND UPDATE
  • Nifty Futures 15 minutes chart with support and resistance lines.
  • Price sustaining above the red line will favour bulls. 
  • Pink line can be kept as the line of control. Bulls will try to take full control above the pink line. Breaking below the supporting trend lines in red color will favor bears.
  • Important support level for reliance in daily chart is 958 Breach of this area can take reliance below 950 towards 915.
  • If trades above 958 and closes above this level stock may give 993 on upside.
  • But this stock is trading below its  20 , 50 , 100 and 200 DMA's. It's also interesting to note that the stock had fallen so fast that the 20 DMA did not catch up with the price. So 20 DMA may cross  50 , 100 and 200 DMA before the stock bottoms. Positional longs will be safe if taken aove 20 DMA.
  • Before the euphoric rise towards 6300 levels nifty was trading in a broad multi week range. 
  • We saw a breakout above 6500 levels. In most breakouts we can expect a retest of the breakout area before the next move happens towards the breakout.
  • FALLING WEDGE OF NIFTY

  • Nifty spot is showing a possible falling wedge reversal pattern. If price does not make new lows this pattern is very likely to give support for nifty.
  • On the contrary if price continues to stay below the 100 DMA nifty can move towards its 200 DMA.  
  • FLAG OF CNX IT

November 27, 2010

SPY DAILY CHART
WEEKLY CHART
  • SPY Daily chart has a triangle like pattern with price trading near the apex of the pattern.
  • Breakout of the pattern should take out 120 for favouring bulls and breaking 117 will favour bears.
  • Weekly chart shows similar price action at the top. Price breaking the horizontal support at 114 and the weekly supporting trend line will give large correction.
  • DOW JONES WEEKEND UPDATE
  • The Title should have been BULL FLAG of CNX IT. But considering the bearishness of Nifty and the Global markets I am being cautious.
  • This pattern can act as a descending channel which takes the IT stocks down or can at as a Bull Flag which reverses the trend.
  • The second chart shows how this particular index finding support just below 50 DMA. If price manages to close above 50 DMA chances of an upside breakout will increase.
  • Important support for the index is at 6482. and Important resistance for the Bull Flag to work is at 6891.
  • Dow Jones four hour chart shows the cloud acting as resistance in this time frame. Price tried to go above the cloud several times but met with resistance from the ichimoku cloud. 
  • Daily chart is shown with 20 and 50 DMA's. 
  • 20 DMA acted as resistance this week and 50 DMA gave support at lower levels.
  • Weekly chart is shown with the weekly trend support and resistance. Main support on weekly chart is between 10710 - 10730, Resistance is between 11240 - 11260 levels.
  • For next week the hourly chart is showing a range of  10970 - 11200..

November 26, 2010

  • USD/JPY Weekly chart showing recovery from historic lows.
  • But the current up move may find resistance at 85.80 and if manages to close and trade above this level this pair can give 88.16. 
  • Anything above will be possible only if the pair breaks out above the strong weekly down trend line.
  • SPY chart with a right angled broadening pattern.
  • Resistance is at 120.39. Support for today is the day's low at 119.03
  • If today's gap is filled the bullishness can sustain only if price closes above 120.39 otherwise selling pressure will take spy down.
  • Statistics of right angled broadening pattern shows a larger percentage of upside breakouts.
  • S&P 500 FUTURES ANALYSIS
  • First chart shows a big triangle formation developing in ES four hour chart which will give direction soon.
  • Next chart shows the ichimoku cloud acting as resistance confirming that sell on rallies is a better a option until the trend changes completely.
  • 1170 and 1205 are important levels to watch out for.

November 25, 2010

  • Nifty Futures important levels to cross are 5904 for bulls and 5859 for bears.
  • NF has been trading in a narrow range from morning since it is expiry day we may see some wild moves in the afternoon trade with caution.
  • LIC Housing Finance Ltd broke down from a descending Triangle pattern.
  • Stock came down more than 200 points. The fall was stopped at the 200 DMA yesterday, But the momentum and the News Flow may take it down Further.
  • It's interesting to note how a stock forms a bearish pattern before such news comes out.
  • Nifty spot is close to an important support and resistance line and will give good direction soon. If it beaks down 5750 is a good support area.
  • 20 and 50 day moving average is about to give a bearish cross. If it happens it will be negative for sometime.
  • Market moving above 6020 can reduce the bearishness.
  • Dow Jones could not hit the 50% retrace level today despite the bullish move. This is the third such attempt in as many day's .
  • Same should be said about the 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. Dow jones comes close to the moving average but not able to close above the moving average.
  • If these levels are not take out quickly we may see another sell off to the lower end of the trading range.
  • SPY WITH A DESCENDING BROADENING WEDGE

  • SPY is trading near the resistance level of 120.39
  • An up move will be possible on a breakout above 120.39.
  • Today's morning GAP is yet to be filled. So unless SPY decides to breakout above 120.39 Chances of a correction from here is very likely.

November 24, 2010

  • Dow Jones hour chart is showing a range of  10980 - 11200.
  • Price is trading near the upper end of the trading range. 
  • Price is trying to go above the ichimoku cloud in hour chart.
  • If a breakout happens price should close and sustain above 11205 for a larger up move to happen. Otherwise this will be a perfect place to short. Oscillators have come to the overbought region for hour time frame.
  • Silver seems to be creating a Flag.
  • This one a bull Flag. If the flag gives an upside breakout hour should close above 27.80 for bullishness to sustain.
  • Breaking the support line will be an opportunity to go short.
  • EURUSD May turn around from 1.32 levels.
  • The supporting TREND LINE may reverse the down trend in daily chart.
  • Break below 1.32 will be negative and extend this correction.
  • MSFT is trading near its 50 Day Moving Average.
  • Stock could not sustain above its 200 DMA and was followed by this correction.
  • Now the indicators like Stochastic and RSI is showing oversold readings.
  • IF 50 DMA holds this stock can give a decent bounce from current levels.
  • S&P 500 BEFORE OPENING BELL

  • Four hour chart of ES with ichimoku cloud.
  • When the trend was up every dip into the cloud resulted in buying and recently price broke and closed below the cloud, Result is every rise into the cloud will be met with selling.
  • Cloud is reliable in larger time frames.
  • ES is showing good support at 1173 on closing basis. Resistance at 1205 level.
  • GOLD CHART ANALYSIS

  • Reliance Industries chart on weekly time frame.
  • 965 to 995 seems to have given lot of support for the stock.
  • But breaking 965 will be bearish as it can slip to 920 levels from there.
  • But for now since the stock is holding on to this level we can expect a turn around especially if the stock closes within this range of 965 to 995 or above that.
  • WE SAW THE SELLING ZONE OF RELIANCE FEW DAYS BACK WHICH GAVE GOOD RESULTS

HOUR CHART
  • Nifty Futures getting resisted exactly at 50 hour moving average
  • This level should be taken out for bulls to take control and 6022 for confirming the trend change
WEEKLY CHART
  • Nifty Spot weekly chart gave a trend line trade yesterday.
  • Those who followed weekly trend lines would have got a nice entry. I missed it.
  • Now last two times price gave a hit on this trend line and started running up a similar price action can give lot of profits for those who are holding longs. But if price starts to test it agian we may see it getting broken.
  • We may see real strength coming back to weekly chart only if nifty spot crosses 6020 levels.

November 23, 2010

  • Current up move in gold may hit 1387.
  • Gold may find resistance around 1387. Breaking out above 1387 will target the recent high made in gold which is 1424.
  • EURUSD daily chart with Trend line support.
  • Correction for this index may find support on the trend line in daily chart.
  • Important support for the pair is around 1.32 level
  • Larger correction from here will be possible only if the trend line gets violated.
BROADENING TOP FOR THE BEARS
FALLING WEDGE FOR THE BULLS
  • First chart is a the bearish broadening pattern shown in 30 minutes chart of ES.
  • A falling wedge is also in the making in ES which is a bullish reversal pattern.
  • Main support on closing basis for ES is 1173. If 1173 holds this week Price will move higher above 1200.
  • Breaking 1173 will be negative and price will slip below 1150.
  • S&P 500 BEFORE OPENING BELL
  • Dow Jones Futures is trading between 11050 - 11070 which is an important support zone for this index.
  • Price may start going up again from this zone.
  • Breaking this level will take index to 11010 level initially. 
  • ES four hour chart with support and resistance lines.
  • Price has violated an important trend line in four hour chart.
  • Price staying below the trend line will be negative and can drag the index to the next supports levels which are at 1180 , 1176 initially.
  • Price getting back above the trend line may stop a sell off for now.
  • DOW JONES ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL

Disclaimer

All the contents of niftychartsandpatterns are for educational purposes only and are not Investment Advice or recommendations offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures. Niftychartsandpatterns shall not be held responsible for the actions of individuals, parties, or corporations taken in response to the ideas, thoughts, concepts or information presented in this blog. Hence all the visitors are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial or investment adviser before acting on any of the Ideas in this blog.

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