February 1, 2012

  • US Dollar falling in a narrow channel
  • If the channel holds price may target the blue trend line shown in first chart.
  • Breaking below 38.2% Fib level will extend correction towards the trend line.

  • AUDUSD Trying to move away from 200 SMA.
  • Resistance is seen between 1.0750 - 1.0763 level. Breakout above this level may take this pair towards 1.1010 - 1.1080 zone.

  • Week candles shows resistance at 50 Week SMA.
  • If a correction happens Weekly support line may act as support.
  • If weekly trend line breaks important support levels are 166 and 160.
  • Bullish structure of the stock will be tested below 160.

  • Silver Four hour moving up in a channel
  • As long as the channel holds the consolidation ranges should result in up moves.
  • 2nd chart shows important support and resistance levels in Hourly chart.

  • Nifty does a Bullish month it narrowly missed the 5 Month High EMA like it has done many times during this down trend.
  • For a bigger move to happen price has to give a clear breakout from this descending channel. 
  • Fibonacci fan's shows the beauty of Fib lines Nifty took support at Golden ratio line and rallied to close exactly at the 50% Fib line.
  • For bulls February candle shall trade above last month high price for the momentum to sustain or the larger trend will take effect.

  • In the last few attempts whenever 5 Day Low EMA approached 200 SMA it only managed to fall fast.  
  • One more candle above 200 SMA will confirm a breakout. Bears badly need a close below 5 Day Low EMA.
  • If price manage to stay above 200 SMA price will move into the previous support zone as shown in 3rd Chart.

  • Chart discussed below has given a good breakout in favor of bulls. candle closed outside the pattern and an up move followed. Price looks good to reach the recent high made in ES.
  • Next breakout from the above pattern should give good direction provided its on closing basis.
  • Price may test 100 Period SMA again which acted as support yesterday. Close below this average line  may favor a bearish trade.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore