July 21, 2011

  • During the last up move price turned down from 12750 levels.
  • Today's Up move too is finding resistance at the same place.
  • This does not mean that price is going to fall from here.
  • MACD shows developing negative divergence. But there are chances of price making another high before negative divergence shows its effect.
  • If price closes the day below 12750 levels then chances of a correction is there.
  • Crude Oil daily chart with resistance line
  • For today's candle Resistance line is around 100.60 level.
  • Daily close above this level will add momentum to Crude Oil Price. 
  • Next resistance comes around $ 104 levels.
  • SPX has done the 78.6% Fib retrace for the fall from 1356 to 1295 levels.
  • If the Trend line and the Cloud gives support 1356 level is possible soon.
  • Price breaking below the trend line or cloud will be negative.
  • Steep rise in price may give a buy on dip chance which can take price higher.
  • If 78.6% Acts as stiff resistance then a 100% Reversal to 1356 may get delayed.
  • ES Four hour chart is near resistance levels.
  • 1330 acted as previous support this level may act as resistance.
  • Price staying above this level can extend this up move.
  • 50 period moving average in four hour time frame is acting as support.
  • Nifty daily chart shows very little follow up selling by bears after the bearish engulfing pattern.
  • But the head and shoulders pattern in 15 Minutes chart is still intact.
  • Price has closed below 5 day low ema.
  • Now 50 DMA May get tested tomorrow. 
  • Head and shoulder formation in 15 Minutes chart.
  • Pattern is not perfectly formed Yet price action looks bearish.
  • But downward momentum will increase only if the dotted neckline gets broken. 
  • staying above the neckline may attract buying.
  • Nifty is showing bearish price action.
  • Price has fallen below the middle bollinger band in both daily and weekly chart.
  • Price has given a bearish engulfing pattern in daily time frame.
  • But a trending down move may only happen when price closes below 5 day low ema which is yet to happen.
  • Bearish Engulfing pattern needs confirmation. A long black candle or a high volume sell offs can be taken as confirmation for bearish engulfing. So in this case breaking 5550 and further breakdown below 5496 can give clues for a breakdown.
  • When price breaks 5496 the MACD sell signal may start to work well.
  • 50 DMA is @ 5506
  • D Day Low Ema is @ 5556 (Yesterday's Values)
  • Price in daily chart remained above 50 and 20 day moving averages.
  • We have a Bullish cross over of the above mentioned moving averages and if prices remains above them it will move higher.
  • Today's candle suggests some weakness but follow up selling needed for a bigger correction to unfold.
  • Hour charts shows price getting stuck @ 50% Fibonacci level.
  • Hour chart also shows a possible Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern possibility.
  • But if the correction is large as shown with the last chart things will turn bearish again.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore