March 31, 2011

  • Crude Oil Four hour chart shows an ascending triangle type of consolidation. This is a bullish consolidation formation.
  • Break and close above 107 may target 115 levels.
  • If support line gets broken Crude oil will be bearish in the short term.
  • ES Four hour chart is showing a gravestone Doji Candlestick pattern.
  • This is a bearish reversal pattern. Price has not able to go above the shadow of this candle yet.
  • But one good thing for the bulls is that the breakout happened yesterday is still valid.
  • Levels which should be broken by the bears are 1317 and 1313.
  • Nifty's previous support band was between 5754 - 5766 level.
  • On closing basis if nifty sustains above this band trend will continue to favor bulls.
  • Price slipping below this level may lead to some weakness.
  • Unitech daily is near 50 day moving average.
  • Daily chart is forming a Bearish flag pattern.
  • If price sustains above 50 DMA things may turn around for bulls.
  • Last Update on Unitech: UNITECH ENTERS BEAR MARKET
  • Nifty Fibonacci chart shows price crossing 50% level. If week closes above this level we may see nifty moving towards the Golden ratio at 5894. Having said that one has to take a look at the second chart. Nifty during the fall shown on the second chart has made a consolidation during the middle of the fall. But the bulls are yet to consolidate they are doing a faster retrace of the fall. But i am expecting a consolidation to happen soon.

March 30, 2011

  • Four hour chart of ES shows price breaking a resistance line.
  • One hour chart shows support at 1313 level.
  • Breakout will be valid if price does not go below 1317 and 1313 level.
  • The channel and Cloud chart shows strength of this uptrend. Bears are being stretched to the limit.
  • Last chart shows divergence with MACD, I showed this one yesterday too and it is still diverging but without any reaction from price a short trade may not get triggered.
  • Unless key Moving averages are not broken this trend will continue like this.
  • Nifty week is showing resistance at 5751 on closing basis.
  • If price clears this level on closing basis then nifty will move towards 5857 level.
  • Price has stayed above 200 DMA which will favor bulls. For bulls price should sustain above this level. Things will get weaker for bulls if price starts to trade below 200 DMA.
  • Death cross has not given anything for bears till now. This one is going similar to the death cross in U.S markets recently which resulted in a bull market.
  • SPX Hour chart has closed above 20 hour moving average and 20 hour moving average is above 50 hour moving average. Closing is near the high of the day which may favor bulls.
  • Daily chart is showing a bullish engulfing pattern which is bullish in nature. But bulls has to go through a cluster of resistance as shown in the left side of the chart. Resistance cluster is from 1302 - 1333 area.
  • Price is also keeping its head above 50 day moving average which is important for bulls.

March 29, 2011

  • ES Hour chart with broadening patterns.
  • First one gave an upside breakout. 
  • The current pattern will favor bulls if price starts to trade above 1317.50 level.
  • The resistance line may not get cleared at one go. As in the first pattern look for a hit on the upper resistance line followed by a partial decline for going long.
  • Price in hour chart has gone below 50 hour moving average.
  • Slipping below 1302 may give a short entry.
  • Breaking above 1308 and 50 hour moving average will favor bulls.
  • 1296 and 200 hour moving average are the important support levels.
  • MACD and price is showing negative divergence in 15 minutes chart.
  • But price has to confirm by giving a correction which has not happened yet.
  • If price continue to create higher high's Negative divergence will not be valid.
  • Nifty is overbought and at resistance level. But if price manage to close above 200 DMA the indicators has to stay overbought for some more time while nifty moves towards 5900.
  • If the channel resistance around 5700 comes into play bears have a hope. But if that is to happen we will see one or two negative daily candles this week.
  • So the best approach for those who does not have a position would be to watch the 200 DMA drama unfold and enter when the direction becomes clear.
  • SPY Hour is consolidating above 200 hour moving average and the trend line.
  • If price continue to stay above the MA and the trend line an upside breakout will happen.
  • Price falling below 200 hour moving average and the trend line in hour chart may turn the short term trend in favor of bears.

March 28, 2011

  • Dow jones daily chart is shown with the resistance area of 12000 - 12300.
  • Bulls are about to clear this level. Price has made a fast rise from the recent fall. Earlier price took support at the base of Ichimoku cloud as shown in the chart.
  • If price closes above 12300 the upward momentum will gather momentum.
  • Failing to clear this level on closing basis will favor bears.

  • 30 Minutes chart of SPY shows price trying to fill a GAP formed during the start of this month.
  • GAP will be filled at 132.22
  • 5 Minutes chart will favor bulls if price sustains above 131.87.
  • Unable to cross 131.87 will favor intraday bear.
  • ES Hour chart is showing a range from 1305 - 1314.
  • Bullish cross of 50 above 200 hour has worked well for the bulls.
  • Price may move up from 50 hour moving average.
  • Breaking 1305 will be negative for the bulls.
  • Nifty spot chart four hour time frame with resistance line.
  • Price has to close above this line if it has to move up any further.
  • Line chart of bank nifty daily chart shows price moving up after breaking a resistance area.
  • Price has made a successful close above 200 day moving average. Now bulls has to follows up.
  • Third chart shows Three Occasions of price closing above 200 dma and failing to move up further. A higher close today for BN will extend gains up to 11600 levels. If 200 dma gets broken by the bears things will become Negative for BN again.

March 27, 2011

  • Intel weekly chart shows price near weekly trend line which may result in a bounce from the trend line in favor of the bulls.
  • Main resistance bulls need to cross is the 200 day moving average.
  • MACD in daily time frame is showing a bullish alignment.
  • So one can stay long above 200 dma towards 22 with a small stop loss.
  • Bigger correction possible only if the weekly trend line gets broken.

  • Down trend line in weekly chart is broken and stock has started to move up.
  • Stock can move up till its 20 week moving average which is near 260 level. Close above this level can give further upward momentum for the stock towards 50 week moving average.
  • Weekly MACD is about to give a buy signal which is good news for the bulls of DLF.

March 26, 2011

  • SPY Week and day time frames shows bullish price action for the short term.
  • Week chart has broken the trend line but price is trying to retest the broken trend line so this has resulted in an up move which may continue for next week.
  • Daily chart too has closed and a full candle has formed above 50 day moving average. So Price will continue to move up till it tests 50 dma agian.
  • So For next week one can try to trade on the long side with 50 dma as stop.
  • EURUSD is near a resistance level in both daily and weekly chart.
  • Cluster of resistance between 1.42 - 1.43 area.
  • Bigger correction may happen only if 50 day moving average gets broken.

March 25, 2011

  • SPX Four hour chart has given a breakout above the resistance line.
  • Indicators are showing overbought levels.
  • But as shown in the second chart overbought reading can go both ways.
  • In a strong market indicators will stay overbought as price keeps moving up.
  • Yesterday SPX broke its 50 day moving average. As long as price stays above this crucial moving average Bulls are safe.

  • ES Hour chart is trending up in favor of bulls. 
  • Trend line will act as support in case of a correction along with 1296 level which acted as support in hour chart.
  • 200 and 50 Hour moving averages too is showing a bullish alignment.
  • Weakness will be seen if Price starts to trade below 50 hour moving average.
  • SPX Closes above 50 DMA.Four hour chart hits the resistance line: CLICK HERE

  • Nifty Futures hits the channel top.
  • Confirmation of a break from this pattern can be confirmed only when spot nifty reaches 200 DMA. We shall see how nifty spot behaves near its 200 DMA.
  • Nifty futures  4 hour chart with price moving towards the top of the channel.
  • If today's GAP does not fill then bulls will have an easy path towards 5640 - 5650 level.
  • Nifty SPOT 5 minutes chart with the staircase pattern. Typical bull market move were consolidations result in an upper breakout.
  • The trend in shorter time frame is intact for bulls. Only negative is today's GAP which may get filled at some point today or next week. It's the price action that follows the GAP filling that we have to watch for.
  • Break of the trend line will be negative for the bulls. 


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My Favourite Quote

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore