December 15, 2011

  • SPY Hour chart shown with fibonacci levels.
  • Price is stuck between 38.2% and 50 % Fib levels. Bears has to break below 50% Fib level to extend correction. Above 38.2% We may see an intraday Up move.
  • Four hour chart shown with 200 Period SMA. Price is holding above this level. If price closes below this level we may see deep cut in SPY.

  • Price fall is pausing near 200 SMA so bears of crude oil should break this level for further correction
  • Two important cluster of supports in weekly chart are 93.50 - 94.60 and 89.60 - 90.50.
  • First cluster has stopped the fall for now. If 93.50 breaks crude oil may fall towards 90 levels.
  • Price staying above 200 SMA will favor bulls of Crude Oil.

  • Price of silver is testing 100 Week SMA and the resistance line of the channel.
  • Price should sustain above these levels for avoiding a bigger correction.
  • Price sustaining inside the channel will extend correction towards 25 and below it.
  • Weekly close below 100 Week SMA or below the channel resistance line will favor bears of Silver

  • Nifty is still below crucial moving averages in hour time frame. Once price sustains above 20 Hour SMA we may see good gains for the positive divergence shown in the previous post. Price if unable to break above 20 Hour SMA will be negative for bulls.
  • Fast fall shown in an earlier post has given good gains. 50 SMA came closer to 200 hour SMA But was not able to cross over and kept moving away from 200 Hour SMA giving good gains for Bears.
  • Nifty hour with falling wedge and positive divergence.
  • One has to be cautious with longs. If price continue to make new lows falling wedge and divergence will not work.
  • SBI breaking below 20 SMA and 1746 level will favor bears.
  • In case of an up move 50 SMA will act as first resistance.
  • Stock is still below the down trend line which shows the strength of the trend. A bigger breakout possible only if the stock is able to close decisively above the down trend line.
  • 50 SMA is at 1811
  • 20 SMA is at 1777
  • Recent low 1746

  • Price has closed below all crucial moving averages in daily time frame.
  • Weekly shows price about to test 20 and 100 week moving average. This level might hold for some time. This time frame also shows 20 week crossing below 100 week which is a medium term bearish signal.
  • Four hour chart shows possible supporting trend line and fibonacci levels.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore