June 4, 2010

  • SP 500 is getting support at the channel bottom line.
  • For the index to go down from here. The channel bottom line should be broken convincingly.

  • Bulls will try hard to defend 10100.
  • A weekly close below 10100 means bears will be in control of the index.
  • The rising wedge kind of pattern has broken on the down side. Looks like bears are back again.

  • Microsoft corp is trading near resistance line.
  • The stock which had a nice run for the past 3 days is still trading within the down trending channel.
  • So it is trading close to the channel top line.
  • Some profit booking can be expected. Us stocks is also expected to open weak.

  • Euro month charts is trading below an important support line.
  • Since the last month candle close below that support line. More bearishness can be expected.
  • Only a reversal from this level and trade above 1.27000 can bring bullishness back into the index.
  • Right now the trend is down and all the patterns are breaking down too. So it's better to be short.

  • Around 5150 nifty has to face resistance. More buying only above this trend line. 
  • One hour candle at least should close above this trend line. 
  • The index may move above that to 5180 but it may frustrate the bulls before doing that.

  • After moving side ways since yesterday it may be time for nifty to break out.

  • TATAMOTORS having taken support at the bottom of the channel is moving up towards the top of the channel.
  • Right now it is trading above 20 day moving average. And the MACD has given a crossover as well. so with the help of nifty and the world markets TATAMOTORS should do well.

  • Euro is heading down again.
  • One more false break out out of a triangle trapping the bulls.


  • EUR VS USD is forming a triangle in the 10 minutes chart.
  • A break on the upside may be positive for the index in the short term.

  • Nifty hour line chart is forming a rising wedge kind of pattern. 
  • A break out on either side is possible. Since this is in line chart the hour should close outside the pattern . So break out is not enough. The closing should also be outside for this one to give a clear direction.

  • 15 Minutes Chart showing the range for last 2 days. 
  • Down side it is 5085 and 5125 on the upside.
  • And we also have an unfilled GAP in the hourly chart. So below 5085 the bears will try to fill the GAP
  • Look for any weakness below 5080. Above 5125 it is safe to go long and since the hourly chart is in an uptrend and moving side ways the long trade is safe to take.

  • Nifty closed outside the channel with strength
  • closed above the 20 day moving average.
  • 20 day sma and 5 day ema  crossover has taken place.
  • MACD is in positive territory.
  • Since price closed above the 20 day SMA keep your longs with trailing stop loss.

  • USD VS CAD is showing the formation of a falling wedge in daily chart.
  • We had a false break out of a falling wedge in hourly chart.
  • This pattern can break on either side so trade accordingly

  • SP 500 is moving up in a channel. The current move is expected to hit the top of the channel at around 1120. 
  • The MACD has given a buy signal. 
  • Price has not crossed the 20 day moving average.
  • My personal view is that the current up move will end around 1140-1150 to form a weekly Head and shoulders pattern resulting in heavy selling.

  • DOW JONES has finished the day on a positive note.
  • Triangle break still holds. But we have a rising wedge which is keeping the bears interested.
  • But seeing the position of MACD The rising wedge may be is a bears trap. The price will consolidate and will do an upside break. the 20 day moving average is still not captured.
  • So all in all positive day but the clarity in trend is still not descided

  • SP 500 hourly chart is moving in a channel.
  • Trading above 1100 The index should move to the top portion of the channel at above1120.


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My Favourite Quote

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore