June 30, 2011
- Wedge break on the upside.
- Stay long till weakness is seen.
- ES 30 Minutes chart with rising wedge pattern.
- Bearishness will be confirmed if price stays below 50 period moving average shown in the second chart.
- Price sustaining above 50 Period moving average will continue to favor bulls.
- Nifty spot with 30 Minutes chart and Ichimoku cloud.
- Price is still staying above the cloud. Price went above it after the range breakout near 5300 level.
- Up trend will stay intact as long as price does not dip below the cloud.
- First chart shows the stochastic and trend line combination for going short.
- It seems we will get one more short trade from this down trend line shortly.
- This short trade may not get triggered if nifty decides to give a bigger breakout. But when price hits the trend line with an already overbought stochastic the risk reward ration will favor a short trade. So have a small stop loss for this upcoming short sell.
- Second chart shows a positive candlestick near 5604 Past four attempts when nifty got rejected here price showed negative candles. This time it looks different and price momentum the way it came back from 5195 to this level in a short span of time shows the strength of bulls. So they may have enough of momentum to go above 5604 this time.
- TREND LINE OF DOW JONES
June 29, 2011
- CISCO has given a Grave Stone Doji pattern.
- It's a Bullish reversal pattern. But needs price confirmation. In this case price movement is looking good for the bulls. Weekly close above the last weeks high will be good for bulls.
- Second chart too shows a bullish pattern. Break of the resistance line can give a rally.
- Price breaking below the grave stone Doji will favor bears
- Nifty Knocks 5604 one more time.
- We have to see the price action here. Only a daily close above this level will confirm strength.
- ABOVE BROADENING PATTERN WAS SUGGESTED IN THIS POST
- Price approaching its weekly resistance level.
- Recent attempts to stay above 20 week moving average has failed.
- So a bigger breakout cannot be seen unless price closes above 20 week moving average.
- Second chart shows stochastic turning in favor of bulls. Now if the corrections are not large price may continue to move up.
- Lets wait and see how price reacts near 20 week moving average.
June 28, 2011
- ONGC's Head and shoulders showed how a failed pattern can give a fast move in the opposite direction.
- After breaking the neck line there was no big breakdown. The Long Shadows of the daily candles gave a hint of the reversal.
- When price reversed above the neck line it was time to go long and longs gave good profits.
- So when a pattern fails have plans to reverse your trade.
- Long Shadows often shows reversals
BANK NIFTY DAILY LINE CHART
SBI DAILY CHART
- Bank Nifty is getting into a resistance zone.
- As shown in the first chart price has reversed many times from 11160 level on a closing basis.
- Around 11300 price will also hit the Down Trend line.
- So for a bigger breakout to happen price should sustain and close above 11300 Level.
- SBI too is approaching resistance zone. So if Bank Nifty is to make a breakout Then SBI has to stay above 2353 and should make an attempt towards its 50 DMA.
June 27, 2011
June 26, 2011
- First chart is the weekly time frame with price near support area and near the weekly supporting trend line.
- Daily chart shows price closing in on 200 DMA.
- Seeing the above charts i feel the weekly trend line and 200 DMA is likely to hold the index and a bounce from these levels is possible.
- S&P 500 WEEKEND UPDATE
June 25, 2011
- First chart shows SPX Weekly wedge, Price yet to hit the support line of the wedge. Current correction in weekly chart may get over only after price hitting the support line of the wedge. Bigger correction may follow if the wedge gets broken here.
- 2nd chart shows price with 200 DMA and the support level of 1250. Break of this Moving Average will push price down to 1250 level. So all this action may happen near the support line of the wedge and an up move may start from this area.
- For Bears Wedge and 200 DMA Breakdown will be a great event. But on seeing the price action it looks like 1250 may hold in the medium term.
- SPY 5 MINUTES CHART WITH SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS
- All Indications are that this up move may continue.
- Next important resistance is at the 20 week moving average and 5604 level. 20 Week moving average is near 5560 level.
- Look at the last chart the weekly Bollinger band, Price hits and reverses perfectly.
- We saw the Bullish Engulfing But to be frank such a big up move was not expected. The bulls were swept away at least for one day. Bears may get their chance between 5560 - 5604 level.
- Weekly chart is showing a possible false spike out of a consolidation pattern this can be very negative for bears as false moves tend to give vicious moves in the opposite direction.
- Daily MACD and STOCHASTIC shows chances of this up move continuing for a while.
- S&P 500 WEEKEND UPDATE
June 24, 2011
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