July 5, 2012

  • Crude oil pausing at the levels mentioned in an earlier post of crude oil.
  • Sustaining above 50 Day SMA Price will make another attempt to close above 38.2% Fib level which should result in an up move towards 50% fib level and above.
  • Daily cloud will be tough to break. Price closing above the daily cloud will lead to a trend change in crude oil. Bears of crude oil need a close below 50 day SMA.

  • Broken monthly trend lines of EURUSD and the Fibonacci levels are hinting more lows for this pair. If  1.22 levels does not hold which means price breaking below the 50% Fibonacci level, pair will fall towards 1.18 levels which is a crucial low in monthly chart. Below 1.18 we have the Golden ratio which is near 1.14 levels.
  • Above bearish view can be negated if the falling wedge drawn in weekly chart plays out.

  • Since price is near a crucial resistance line If price falls below 50 Hour SMA and the Hourly cloud we may see an extended correction.
  • Bulls must sustain above the hourly cloud to have a chance of breaking out  above the resistance line shown in first chart.

  • Nifty continue to trade near the channel resistance line. Price is also hanging on to the Golden ratio.
  • Bulls need to move above the 5 Month High EMA which is at 5332 to avoid a correction and for a bigger up move to happen.
  • Falling below 5 Day High EMA at 5281 will be seen as negative. A  Daily close below this level may take nifty towards the Low EMA.


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"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore