April 30, 2011

  • Google has started to move up from weekly trend line. Price formed a Doji in weekly chart on the trend line and is moving towards 561 level.
  • Gap in daily chart will start to fade during next week. MACD may confirm the up move by giving a positive crossover.
  • SPY TARGET FOR THE CURRENT UP MOVE
CLICK THE BELOW CHARTS TO ENLARGE
  • From the above charts one conclusion. Watch out for 5690 - 5750. Try to be long above this level. Break and close below this will give shorting opportunity.
  • CRUDE OIL Four hour chart with resistance levels.
  • Price is testing 113.45. If price sustains above this level we may see Crude touching 116 level in the short term.

April 29, 2011

  • SPY Hour chart with possible target for this breakout.
  • Length of the range is about 4.50 points in hour chart.
  • Breakout point is at 134 So adding 4.50 with 134 is giving a projected target of 138.50.
  • Price is respecting a steep trend line in hour chart. We may get a retrace before touching 138.50. If retrace maintains above 134 price will hit 138.50 during next week.
  • ES Hour is trending up inside a channel.
  • First violation of the channel may result in a sideways move and followed by another up move.
  • Bulls are safe if price moves within the Ascending channel.
  • Trend of hour will be safe above the cloud. Price sailing smooth above the cloud.
  • DOW JONES MONTHLY CHART LOOKS BULLISH
  • Detaild analysis will be done over weekend.
  • This one is to show the respect traders have for 200 DMA. Last time we had a bounce trade from this level. Again Nifty has closed exactly at 200 DMA.
  • A long trade with Low risk High reward  is possible from here.  
  • Nifty Week chart is showing Negative price action. Last chart shows price getting resisted by the Golden ratio. This is the 4th weekly candle which is attempting to close above this ratio But bulls it seems will not be able to do this time too.
  • Price has broken 20 day moving average and by the looks of things it will test 200 DMA shortly. On weekly closing basis Nifty may get support at 20 week moving average. Breaking 20 week moving average on closing basis will favor positional bears.
  • DOW JONES MONTHLY CHART LOOKS BULLISH
  • Dow Jones month chart with Fib levels for the fall from 14198 to 6469.
  • Price has retraced  78.6%  of the fall. 
  • Probability of a monthly close above 78.6% is high which is good news for bulls.
  • Sustaining above these levels Dow can complete 100% retrace of the fall.

April 28, 2011

  • Russel 2000 Four hour chart.
  • Price has gone above resistance level of 855. After breakout price is retesting this level.
  • Price sustaining above 855 will be bullish for Russel 2000.
  • Range from which the breakout happened was about 40 points. Weekly close above 855 may take Russel 2000 to  890 and above in the short term.
  • Price sustaining below 855 will favor bears.
  • ES Four hour chart shows main support for ES now between 1336 - 1338 level.
  • Price closing below the above mentioned level will be negative for bulls.
  • Price is trending up above 50 Hour moving average. Price dipping towards this Moving average can be used to go long again.
  • AMAZON Daily chart has given a breakout. 
  • Volume has also spiked above the daily average volume.
  • Week chart was trading in a range of 160 - 190.
  • Price has violated this range. If Week closes and sustains above 190 Amazon will TARGET 215 and above in the coming weeks.
  • Price falling below 190 will be negative for the bulls.
  • SLV CHART ANALYSIS
CHART-II
  • Nifty Closed below the support line.
  • We may see nifty moving towards the lower end of the range before going up.
CHART-I
  • Nifty has violated the support line in hour chart.
  • Now Bulls has to hope that this is a false break below the support line.
  • Reliance has broken the important support at 1000. This number was between 50 and 200 day moving averages which makes it more important.
  • As shown in the 2nd chart Break below and above 20 DMA has given nice trending moves recently. so this should work again But have the trailing stop in place.
  • We discussed about selling the stochastic in weekly chart, This has worked and the profits for bears might extend if price sustains below 1000 level. 
  • RLEIANCE SELL THE STOCHASTIC
  • AAPL Daily chart with 50 day moving average.
  • Price is consolidating above 50 DMA. If continue to stay above 50 DMA price will give hope for bulls
  • Daily candle closing below 50 DMA will favor bears.
  • Hour chart of GOLD has give a breakout above recent high of 1518 level.
  • Hour was forming a range from 1492 - 1518.
  • This breakout should give more than 20 points for gold which should take it passed 1535 level in the short term.

April 27, 2011

  • EURUSD Four hour chart is showing a rising wedge pattern.
  • Rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern.
  • If this pattern plays out we may see the US Dollar taking a bullish turn.
  • A clear break below the support line can start the correction in this pair. 1.4470 is an important support level. 
  • SLV has taking a pause at 50 hour moving average.
  • If price does not breach the moving average we will see an up move in SLV.
  • Hour trend will turn down completely only if price manages to close below the cloud.
  • RISING WEDGE OF ES
  • ES Four hour chart with a rising wedge.
  • Steep Trend line shows possibility of a correction. 
  • But price breaking above the resistance line will add bullishness to the chart.
  • Rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern, Bearish only if price breaks the support line clearly.
  • CISCO - WEEKEND UPDATE
  • MSFT Daily chart has closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.
  • But daily chart is showing resistance at 26.70 - 26.80 levels.
  • Sustaining above the resistance band said above can take stock to the resistance line of the triangle shown in weekly chart.
  • Price in weekly chart is contracting We will see big moves in MSFT once price break out of this weekly triangle.
  • CISCO - WEEKEND UPDATE
  • It seems nifty will give direction only on the last day of this series out of this consolidation pattern.
  • Hour is close to the apex of a consolidation pattern So price should move out of this pattern by tomorrow evening.
  • Price now stands closer to the support line So one more move towards the resistance line can be seen if the support line is held. 
  • If the support line breaks Nifty will move towards 5700. A sustained breakout above the resistance line can give good direction. US Markets have given a similar kind of breakout. We have to wait and see if nifty does the same or not.
  • Nifty is struggling to close above 5900 because of the resistance confluence. The resistance line from 6338 and the Golden ratio for 6338 - 5176 level comes near 5900 level. When ever price comes across confluence of resistance or support it becomes hard for price to break above or below it. Thats why we are seeing the spikes above 5900 being sold off.
  • Daily chart is also showing a range from 5693 - 5945. Breakout from this range and close outside it can give good direction for the index.
  • SPY Daily time frame has closed above its resistance level in daily chart.
  • Hour chart has gone above 50 Hour moving average.
  • There is a GAP between 131 and 132. If todays breakout is real this GAP will remain as a run away GAP.
  • Hour will turn negative only if price starts to trade below 50 Hour moving average and the GAP.

April 26, 2011

  • SLV has broken the trend line in hour chart.
  • Price is trading close to 50 Hour moving average.
  • If price gets support near 50 Hour moving average we may see an up move.
  • Price breaking below 50 Hour moving average can give another correction.
  • ES Hour and MACD is showing negative divergence.
  • Now price has to help the bears as well. Price should confirm by giving a correction.
  • Recent track record with Divergence has not been good. Most of the Divergence shown recently has not worked because price did not help. Lets see how this one goes
  • ES Hour chart shows resistance at 1337.50 level.
  • ES Daily candle shows good upward momentum But price is approaching a cluster of resistance between 1337.50 - 1342.50.
  • Unless the above mentioned level is taken out by the bulls price will continue to correct from current levels.
  • SLV CHART ANALYSIS
  • Nifty hour is showing weakness at the top
  • We have a Pin bar reversal candle which will put pressure on index.
  • Price has again gone back into the range in which it was trading in for the last two days.
  • Failing to cross 5913 will favor bears. Trading below 5857 will give another chance to go short.

Disclaimer

All the contents of niftychartsandpatterns are for educational purposes only and are not Investment Advice or recommendations offered to any person(s) with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks / futures. Niftychartsandpatterns shall not be held responsible for the actions of individuals, parties, or corporations taken in response to the ideas, thoughts, concepts or information presented in this blog. Hence all the visitors are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial or investment adviser before acting on any of the Ideas in this blog.

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My Favourite Quote

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore