March 11, 2015

  • First chart shows price trying to stay above the recent range. Violation of this range by bears may lead to the up trend line shown in 3rd chart.
  • 2nd chart shows price below 200 period SMA. Bounce from the current range may lead to a retest of the broken 200 SMA.

  • Crude oil pause at the month chart may not last long.
  • If daily continues to struggle near the cloud a breakdown below recent lows looks possible. Daily close below the lows may take crude oil towards the swing lows shown in Month chart.

  • SPY Daily shows price nearing an up trend line.
  • Price is also near Golden ratio and 100 Day SMA. So a pause or a bounce from these levels can be expected because of oversold conditions.
  • Having said that when price re-enters a range after a false breakout the reverse move is usually swift and big so a bigger correction cannot be ruled out as well. We discussed the daily range in the Weekend update of SPY

  • Weekly chart shows a falling support line or channel which may give a reversal.
  • Daily chart is also shown with recent lows as support levels.
  • If the daily and weekly channel does not hold then the Month Golden ratio will also be violated. This can take gold below 1100 levels.
  • Gold bulls must protect the Channel support line shown in first chart to avoid bigger falls.
  • ES 4 Hour chart shows price at 50% Fib level
  • Last chart shows price testing a crucial support resistance zone. If this level is gone on closing basis more falls are likely. Bulls need to stay above this zone to avoid bigger falls.
  • 2nd chart is shown with 200 SMA. All major falls recently has tested 200 SMA. Price likely to test 200 SMA This time too.


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My Favourite Quote

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
—Jesse Livermore