September 30, 2010

APPLE Climbing down

  • Apple Hour chart, The stock is steadily climbing down.
  • Today it broke the support at 285. Now there is an up move happening from 282 to 285.
  • 285 will act as resistance for now.

S&P 500 Weekly chart analysis

  • The weekly chart looks bearish after today's false breakout.
  • A bearish weekly candle in the making after 4 positive ones.
  • It seems 1150 is not going to be broken in a hurry unless some great news comes out.


  • Could not sustain above 1150 the breakout has failed
  • The breakout shown in the below chart should sustain above 1150 otherwise this will be a failed breakout.
  • Another attempt with good volume may do it for the bulls. If the volumes are low it's not going to sustain above 1150.
  • S&P 500 Futures has broken out of the triangle pattern
  • Index has also given a breakout above 1150.
  • Bears would be hoping for a false breakout which may happen if the index starts to trade below 1150 again.
  • First target for this breakout would be 1160 provided this is not a false breakout.

S&P 500 futures before opening bell

  • S&P 500 Futures breaks out of the triangle and the spot breaks 1150 resistance
  • S&P 500 Futures Hour chart is trading in a triangle. Price is approaching the apex of the pattern. The current price action seems to be favouring bulls.
  • If the Triangle breaks out on the upside S&P 500 Spot may breakout above 1150 resistance.


  • Crude hits $80 as discussed below. And it also hits the resistance line of the Triangle.
  • Up move from here is possible only if the weekly triangle breaks.
  • Crude Oil weekly chart in a triangle pattern.
  • Right now it is rallying to the resistance line of the triangle.
  • A possible target of 80$ for the current up move. At around 80$ Crude will hit the resistance line of the Triangle.
  • For further up move Crude should breakout of the triangle

The making of a Head and shoulders

  • A possible head and shoulders pattern shown in Nifty futures hour chart.
  • One thing to note, this is an assumption. This is possible only if NF rallies up to 6020 - 6030 levels, Finds resistance there. Then a sell off to break 5966. So everything has to work picture perfect if this is to come true.
  • I am just showing a possibility. If Price action obliges this pattern will be shown on our trading screen then only one has to take action.

Nifty futures support line

  • Bears will be hoping for a close below 5956 so that this support area becomes a resistance.
  • Bulls will defend 5956 so that they can scale 6000 again.

The patterns of stock market

  • Many times the bull market starts with a W formation. and it ends with an M. This is not a thumb rule but has seen this happen many times.
  • By Showing an M i am not suggesting that this up trend is going to end. But one should take a note of the weakness that occurred followed by such a patterns occurrence.
  • Now one should watch the levels of 5956 in NF. Breaking below it will give sharp correction and it will break an important support. Then that support will become resistance.  

Nifty daily analysis

  • Nifty is not able to close above 6035 levels.
  • Index is facing selling pressure at higher levels shown by the upper shadows of the candles. Sometimes these show the exit of smart money before big corrections. But nifty hasn't breached important levels for the bulls to get worried. One of the criteria can be a close below 5 day low ema. But one word of caution is that 5 day low ema has acted as support zone also. So one should have tight stop loss for going short especially because of the prevailing trend which is up.
  • As said above a only firm close into the selling zone of nifty that is above 6035 can take nifty to new high's.


    • First chart shows price converging between support and resistance lines which will lead to a breakout today.
    • Stock is resting on its 50 DMA, So after the breakout stock will move away from its 50 DMA. Take a trade based on it, one should also keep in mind the supports and resistances for the stock which is at 993 and 200 DMA.

    Bank Nifty analysis

    • Bank nifty is showing a range of 12068 one the down side to 12363 on the upside.
    • We will get range bound moves till the index trades within this range.
    • If bank nifty closes below the 5 day low ema then price may test the low end of the range at 12068

    SPY Hour chart looks weak

    • SPY hour chart looks negative. 
    • SPY has violated the support line in hour chart.
    • Hour closing below 114 will be negative for the bulls

    S&P 500 Below 50 Hour Moving average

    • S&P 500 Futures is trading below its 50 Hour moving average
    • Index is moving towards the support line of the triangle formation.
    • Support for the index may come in-between 50% - 61.8% Fib levels.
    • Failing to take support at the support line of the triangle and breaking 61.8% Fib level will be negative for the bulls.

    S&P 500 Near Resistance Level

    • S&P 500 is approaching its main resistance of 1150.
    • A good volume breakout will help continue the previous trend in daily chart.
    • If gets resisted here it will be negative for the index. This is third attempt to breakout above 1150 so getting resisted here will lead to good correction.