- Dow Jones hour chart is showing resistance at 10600 levels.
- The Hour chart is also forming a channel which is trending down.
- A Break out from this channel may find resistance around 10590 areas.
- If the channel holds the next move will be towards 10300.
- S&P 500 SUPPORT ZONE
July 30, 2010
- Nifty futures hour chart is showing support between 5380-5390
- The hour chart is supported by an important trend line in this zone.
- The index might get support in this zone. But a break cannot be ruled out as well. If the line breaks that could be the starting of a larger correction. For confirmation one can wait for the break of 5350 in nifty spot.
- NIFTY DAILY CHART ANALYSIS
- Nifty daily chart is showing another consolidation triangle pattern.
- Since the raising wedge pattern has given a break out on the down side, this triangle may break on the down side. But because it is a triangle one should look for a false break out as well.
- Price is coming near the 20 SMA. the main support for nifty is at 5350 look for a reaction from these two levels.
July 29, 2010
- Flag gives a short trade .
- Hourly close below 1095 can bring 1088 in the short term
- A bullish flag in S&P 500 index.
- If this pattern does a bullish break out it should take out the recent high of 1131.
- If price falls below 1100 the pattern will be invalid.
- DOW JONES TRIANGLE PATTERN
- Nifty futures hour chart with support and resistance lines.
- Nifty futures has broken an important trend line in hour chart. and price is making its way up for a retest of the broken line.
- According to the above chart a retest of 5430 is possible before nifty goes down again.
- Nifty has broken the raising wedge.
- Price did not close below 5 day low ema, but came down below it briefly to close above it.
- Price is still above 20 SMA.
- Nifty has broken an important trend line in daily chart. But as shown in the last chart there is still hope left for the bulls above 5350.
- DOW JONES TRIANGLE IN 15 MINUTES CHART
July 28, 2010
- Triangle has broken on the down side. If this is not a false break down the index can come down at least till 10450.
- 15 minutes chart of Dow Jones is forming a triangle pattern.
- Since the index is trading at previous high a pause or a negative move is possible before making new high's.
- THE CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN IS BECOMING WEAKER.
- THE HANDLE SHOULD NOT COME DOWN SO FAR.
- Nifty hour is forming a beautiful cup and handle pattern.
- The handle is yet to give a break out on the upside
- One can expect a 100 point move if everything goes according to the rules of cup and handle pattern.
- And one more thing is that we have a raising wedge in daily char which is a bearish pattern. So one should consider the bigger picture before taking a trade based on the above chart.
- NIFTY DAILY CHART ANALYSIS
RELIANCE DAILY CHART
RELIANCE WEEKLY CHART
- Reliance has broken down from its ascending triangle in daily chart.
- But the fall may not go below 1000. Because of the ascending trend line that has been supporting the stock for several months now.
- A Break below 1000 could be very negative for the bulls as it means breaking down from the weekly triangle as well.
- I have given the range of 964 and 1150. The violation of these numbers can only bring an end to this multi month range bound action.
- RAISING WEDGE OF NIFTY
- Nifty's raising wedge is shown with upper break out points.
- According to this today the price should either break out on upside or break the raising wedge's lower boundary to give a short trade.
- Price again closed between 5 day high and low ema.
July 27, 2010
- There is a small negative divergence developing in Dow Jones
- But the index is trading at 10600 area from where it went down to 9614.
- So If the bulls are strong they have to break 10600 and should make a firm close above it, and then the negative divergence will vanish in no time.
- So from here both trades are possible. wait for proper direction.
- The raising wedge in daily chart is still valid. the morning may get a minor gap up because of the U.S. markets.
- But any drastic changes in RBI policy can bring the raising wedge in to action.
- Nifty closed between 5 day high ema and low ema.
- But the index is still trading above its 20 day sma. and as long as it stays above the 20 sma bullish moves are possible.
- I have also shown the weekly candle. Right now it looks weak but we have four more day's to go in the week and a move above 5450 can turn the candle to a positive one.
- But staying below 5400 and 5350 will not be good news for the bulls.
- S&P 500 ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
- S&P 500 index closed up 12.35 points or 1.12%.
- Dow Jones closed up 100.81 points or 0.97%.
- So both major indices making nearly a percentage gains.
- The first chart in this post shows the S&P 500 closing above its 200 DMA. I was expecting a close below this average today. But bulls were too strong.
- The index has also closed at the 50% fib retrace levels of its recent fall from 1219 to 1010. So a successful close above this level tomorrow can take the index to 61.8% retrace levels in the coming days.
July 26, 2010
July 25, 2010
CNX - IT DAILY CHART
- CNX - IT Chart is showing sideways consolidation after its big Up trend that started around 2000 area.
- One closer look at the chart shows a possible shorting opportunity. The index is trading near its supply zone of 6200 on closing basis.
- One can go short at around 6200 area with a stop loss of 6235 on closing basis.
- NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS
- Nifty daily chart's raising wedge is getting closer to its apex. Another week of consolidation by staying within the boundaries of the wedge will make a perfect set up for a big correction.
- Weekly charts are also trading close to the top of the trading range.
- The weekly stochastic indicator is not showing any weakness. Keep a watch on the %K line which can give an early warning if it moves below the %D lines.
- The month chart is shown with the Fibonacci retrace levels of its fall from 6357 to 2252. And Nifty is trading close to its 78.6% retrace levels at around 5478 region.
July 23, 2010
- Nifty has closed well above 5 day high ema showing strength.
- The bottom trend line of the raising wedge has given support so a rally till the top of the wedge is possible. provided nifty stays above 5 day high ema.
- The weekly chart is also looking strong. The weekly stochastic has entered overbought zone but it is in no mood to turn down. Until it turns down and gives a sell it's a buy.
- U.S. Markets rallied yesterday more than 2% which will help the bulls today morning.
- DOW JONES ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL
- Dow Jones closed up 201.77 points 1.99%
- Three possibilities of Dow Jones.
- First one is a W formation in line chart of daily time frame. this will be confirmed with a move above 10380-10400 and a close above this range can push the index above 10600 levels.
- The second possibility is the index getting resisted at the 200 DMA. My personal preference too is this one Dow forming an "M" after hitting the 200 DMA and going below 1000.
- The other possibility is a neutral range play for some time because of the lack of clear trend, Dow can remain in a range of 10000-10400 for some time.
- DOW JONES FUTURES BREAKS OUT
July 22, 2010
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART
- Nifty weekly chart with stochastic indicator.
- The indicator is in overbought zone and is yet to show any weakness.
- Index is also respecting the weekly trend line.
- A Break of the trend line coupled with a sell signal in stochastic should be a good place to go short.
July 21, 2010
- Dow Jones futures chart with support and resistance lines
- The index is trading near resistance line and it coincides with the presence of 50 hour moving average.
- Break of resistance with strong volume can push the index at least till 10250-10300.
- If gets resisted by the trend line and the moving average will go below 10100.
- Nifty is trading between its 5 day high and low ema for four days now. But the day range is expanding.
- The raising wedges support trend line may keep the index up for some time.
- It is still trading above its 20 day moving average and an important support line shown in the first chart.
- NIFTY'S CHANNEL BREAK TRADE
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