September 2, 2010

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

  • 3rd chart shows the negative cross of 20 week moving average below 50 week moving average. So for the longer term things look bearish.
  • For the very short term this index may get to 1100 where it may find resistance. But if the index manages to cross the weekly resistance line a good rally will happen.
  • We have a channel breakout in daily chart and a close near the high of the day which should be positive for the short term. 
  • Index closed right at the 50 dma and 20 dma. Trading above these moving averages will be very positive for the bulls. Failing to cross 50 DMA will result in a pull back.

Dow jones end of day analysis


  • 3rd Chart is the weekly chart. Price is trading below 50 and 20 week moving average.
  • Today's momentum and the way the index closed may take the index above these weekly moving averages. 
  • One more important thing is the pending negative cross in the weekly chart of 20 week ma below 50 week ma.. So even if the price moves above these MA the high may be limited to 10500 - 10600 area.
  • The 2nd chart is the daily chart, price has closed above 50 DMA. But just below 20 DMA. If index has good momentum in the following day's 20 DMA may move away from 50 DMA so that the negative cross in daily chart does not happen.

September 1, 2010

Triangle formation of Apple.


  • Apple's daily chart shows a triangle formation.
  • Apple had a break down from this triangle pattern recently.
  • Now the stock is retesting the breakdown area.
  • If the trend line acts as resistance the stock will start moving down.
  • If price re-enters the topic it will be good for the bulls.

SPY Trading in a triangle

CHART - II
  • SPY is finding resistance at 110.
  • If the breakout from triangle does not happen soon, more the chances of hitting 106 level at the bottom of the triangle.
CHART - I
  • SPY daily chart is trading in a triangle formation.
  • If 105 level gives support then SPY may rally towards the top of the triangle formation.
  • So for this trade one can keep a small stop loss at 104 for a target of at least 110.
  • But the main criteria the trend line in which it has taken support now should be held.

Dow Jones futures before opening bell

CHART - II
  • Channel break gives a good rally as discussed below
  • 10240 region is crucial for bulls. any weakness at this region can give a pull back in favour of bears
CHART - I
  • Dow Jones futures is looking positive today. 
  • Index has managed to rally till the resistance line of the channel.
  • Now the area between 10130 - 10150 is crucial. Resistances are strong around here. If price is able to sustain above 10150 a good rally is possible.

Nifty intraday update I

  • Nifty Futures is trading near 50% retrace level of its high(5541) to yesterday's low(5354).
  • So this range of 5430 - 5450 is filled with resistances. There is a trend line resistance too which had acted as resistance in the past.
  • So this is in that in between kind of area were things are not clear. My preference is to go short, but it is best to stay away till things are clear.

Nifty Intraday update

  • If the break below the trend line is a false one the earlier trend which is up can continue.
  • But i have my doubts, If NF closes below the trend line again, yesterday's Low may not be held the correction will be bigger than that.
  • But holding above the trend line will be positive for the bulls.