October 31, 2010

US DOLLAR Weekend Update

  • US Dollar showed some strength this week but that is not enough as per the first chart. Price is still below the down trend line drawn from 88.
  • First chart also shows crucial trend line breaks and i feel one more of those trend line breaks may happen before the dollar rallies.
  • But if the trend line drawn from 88 breaks that may give some head aches for the bears of US Dollar.
  • The 2nd chart shows weekly RSI below 30% from here the probability of a reversal is very high but the positive divergence is not yet there. We can clearly see negative divergence when the weekly RSI was above 70% dollar rallied up to 88 and started falling down followed by the huge negative divergence. But i must say that it took many months before the negative divergence showed its effect.
  • To summarise there is an opportunity to sell dollar below 76.14. Things will look positive for the bulls only if the index crosses 79.82.

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