December 31, 2011

S&P 500 Year End Analysis

  • From the above charts Important support levels for SPX in the medium term is seen near 1200 - 1220 level.
  • Plenty of resistances in the form of 200 SMA Previous support levels which is acting as resistance add to that the indicators in daily charts are at overbought levels. Having said that if day and week is able to sustain above 1270 - 1280 level bulls may gain some strength.

NIFTY Year End Analysis

  • Bears are in complete control. 
  • Week MACD histogram has started to diverge positively But We never know when the reversal might take place until it happens. So let price break the resistance line shown in the last chart for a safe bullish trade to happen. If price break the support line then the fall might continue. If price continue to fall then nifty will hit the support line at 4510 - 4520 level for next week.
  • Descriptions in chart please click to expand.

December 30, 2011

CISCO Triangle pattern

  • CISCO is showing a contracting triangle pattern in its four hour chart as shown in 2nd chart.
  • Weekly chart shows price unable to sustain above crucial Fibonacci level.
  • Considering the weekly resistance level a breakdown from the triangle pattern may take the stock back to its 200 SMA before the next up move.
  • For bulls price need to close the week above 38.2% Fib level.

ES Support and Resistance levels

CRUDE OIL Hour chart Analysis

  • Crude Oil hourly chart with 50 Hour SMA and Ichimoku cloud.
  • Hourly cloud is acting as resistance. 
  • Violating of the levels shown in 2nd chart may give good moves in crude oil.
  • MCX Crude Oil chart below this post

  • Important support band for bulls to hold on closing basis is 5259 - 5290 level.

GOLD - Possibility of a death cross

  • Gold daily is getting closer to a death cross with 50 SMA coming closer to 200 SMA
  • Price closing below weekly chart will extend this correction in gold.
  • If the current week's low is violated again price may move towards 38.2% Fib level shown in the last chart.

TCS Chart Analysis

  • TCS Weekly chart near important resistance levels.
  • Daily chart is moving up above 50 Day SMA and daily trend line.
  • Daily indicators are overbought and the correction if happens may be limited to the 50 Day SMA or the daily trend line. Bigger correction may happen once the moving average and trend line gets broken.
  • Hour chart is showing bullish Ascending triangle pattern. Bigger up moves will be possible only if stock crosses the big resistance level shown in weekly chart on closing basis.
  • Breaking 1159 will favor a short trade in TCS. Long trades is not showing good risk reward ratio unless the stock decides to breakout above the strong resistance level of weekly chart.

Triangle of Tata Motors

  • Its a contracting triangle pattern in daily chart for Tata motors
  • One should also note the presence of 200 SMA near the pattern. The fact that price is staying below 200 SMA should favor bears.
  • For bulls an upper breakout and a breakout above 200 SMA should happen. For bears breaking below the support line of the triangle should target 167, 160 and lower. For upper breakout one should watch 200 SMA, Price closing above it can give good up moves for Tata Motors.

December 29, 2011

ES Hour chart update

  • Description in chart click to expand.

APPLE Bearish Engulfing

  • Apple is showing a bearish engulfing pattern near resistance levels.
  • Bulls has to cross 409 - 415 level which is acting as resistance now.
  • There is a gap between 409 - 415 may extend the current up move in apple. If bearish engulfing is effective we may see a correction in apple towards the support line shown in second chart.

CRUDE OIL Hour chart Analysis

  • 99 is important level for crude oil hour chart to hold.
  • Price has already fallen below the hourly cloud which is negative. This is a sell on rise situation according to Ichimoku cloud till price breakout above the cloud.
  • Breaking below 99 Level will strengthen bears of crude oil further.

SILVER Weekly chart Analysis

  • Silver weekly chart looks weak. Price has support at 26.02 Breaking below 26.02 will take silver to its weekly support line.
  • Price has broken 100 Week SMA. Closing below this level will be bearish and price may target the golden ratio shown in weekly chart.
  • MCX Silver chart is shown below this post.

  • Hour chart shows price breaking down from consolidation patterns.
  • Immediate resistance for Silver now is 523 - 528 level which was the last broken support level.

SBI Chart Analysis

  • SBI Trending down towards 78.6% Fib level as shown in weekly chart.
  • Price is moving between Lower BB and Middle Bollinger band.
  • See how MACD keep on diverging without any major bounce yet. Bounces due to divergence are getting smaller. Stock might give a good pull back but anticipating that trade will be costly. 
  • So for now its better to sell at Middle Bollinger band.

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

GOLD Near Weekly trend line

  • Gold is approaching its weekly supporting trend line. But daily chart is trending down below 50 and 200 Day SMA. Which hints that the fall might continue for some more time before a bottom formation.
  • Week chart shows price above the Ichimoku cloud. Stochastic is about to go below the 20 line for the first time after 2008. Oversold stochastic and Ichimoku cloud may save bulls from a deeper correction.

December 28, 2011

QQQ Falling from the resistance line

ES Hour chart update

  • Negative divergence finally gives a meaningful correction for bears.
  • Price sustaining below 50 Hour SMA will extend this correction. 
  • 100 Hour SMA may act as next support level. We may see a bounce from this level.