Stock Market Chart Analysis: 2018

August 23, 2018

Updating blog after a long Gap. Longest in the last 8 years. May not be able to update regularly for 2 more months to come.
Gold bulls continues to struggle below the Daily cloud.
Month chart shows the continuous falling from the triangle contraction. Possible support near the base of the triangle which is around 1130 levels. If that is not held then price may be heading down towards the swing low of year 2016 which is around 1050 levels.

Apple daily chart shows previous support lines acting as support. Bigger weakness for the stock if price closes below these lines.
Month candle is showing weakness so far. Staying below 190 levels should lead to a bearish candle. Price getting back above 190 plus levels will be negative for Bears.
MACD Shows recent failed cross in month time frame. A bearish candle here in Month time frame may lead to bearishness in the Indicator as well.

Vedanta Month chart with sell signals highlighted from year 2010.
Past 2 sell signals along with MACD worked well.
Current sell signals is accompanied by agitation against one of its plant in Tamilnadu.
The buy signals in 2009 and 2016 have also worked very well with this set up. So its better to wait for such a signal to emerge to enter this stock. Till then its a sell.

Nifty daily is trying to seek support at 50 Day SMA.
Weekly time frame shows bears threatening with a Bearish engulfing pattern at the top. But this Bearish pattern needs help from 50 Day SMA. If 50 Day SMA does not hold in daily time frame then the Bearish engulfing in Weekly time frame will be effective.

Punjab National bank Month chart shows support at 69 levels if that is not held then 57 levels are possible. 57 Levels are last seen in Year 2009. For long term bulls of the stock crucial to stay above 57 levels.

BELOW ANALYSIS WAS MADE IN FEBRUARY 2018. A BEARISH "M" WAS SEEN IN CHART @ THAT TIME

Daily trend continues to favour bulls. 3 times price tested the cloud But bulls managed to hold one. Larger trend will remain safe till price stay above daily cloud.
Month chart with Fib levels shows a possible target between Golden ratio and 78.6% Retrace level. This level also coincides with some of the falling resistance lines from 147 levels.
But major event to look out is the move above 200 SMA. In Month time frame this event results in Major directional moves.

ES Daily shows triangle breakout. But Bulls must stay above some more hurdles to claim it as a genuine breakout. Bulls are also not showing enough momentum yet. Having said that staying above 2720 levels can given them momentum. Bears may look at a double top opportunity around 2720 levels.

Price continue to stay in the apex of the pattern. Looks like it will move to the edge of the Apex before a breakout or breakdown could happen. Since its a triangle false moves are very much likely to be seen.
Overhead resistance at 50 and 100 SMA. Close above these lines may hint of strength. Remaining below it will favour bears.

Crude oil bulls will remain strong above 66 Levels. More important Bulls will remain strong above 200 SMA (Month).
April month candle trying to close above 200 SMA. If successful it will be a crucial event for short term crude oil prices.

Price testing one hour cloud.
One hour also shows price nearing 100 Hour SMA and Golden ratio which may act as resistance levels for bulls.

Daily chart shows the down swing. Possible targets or support levels are 2590 and 2550 levels.
One hour stands below the cloud. Bears safe till price stay below hour cloud.
30 Minutes chart shows resistance level for the day. Bulls need to stay above 2639 levels for a possible bounce.

Bulls are pausing at previous resistance zone around 10600 - 10630 levels.
Daily cloud is acting as resistance for now.
Hour continue to look good for bulls. Hour trend must snap and a cloud break needed for bears to start getting excited. Till then bulls in control.

ES Daily is reacting from the triangle resistance line and Upper bollinger band.
Next support in daily chart is the middle bollinger band near 2645
Hour is starting to look oversold so bulls can expect an intraday bounce. Bears may take control towards the end of the day.

ES Daily is pausing at upper bollinger band
Weakness in hour only if price falls below the cloud and crucial moving averages shown in chart 2 and 3.

Crude oil 4 hour has violated the resistance line. If price doesn't fall back quickly into the pattern this is good news for Crude oil bulls.
In daily time frame 66 remains crucial. Staying above this level crude bulls will keep moving higher.