June 23, 2011

S&P 500 Testing 200 DMA again

  • Price is testing 200 day moving average again.
  • Repeated test of this moving average may lead to a convincing break.
  • Hour chart falls below the cloud again. Now bears should break the recent low to extend the gains. If they are unable to break the low then bulls may get a chance to stay above 200 DMA.
  • Price if continue to sustain above 200 DMA will favor bulls.

CRUDE OIL Channel is being tested

  • Crude oil channel is being tested.
  • Break of the channel will be negative for crude oil prices.
  • Price is also near 50% fib level. Convincing break of this level can take Oil price to 38.2% which is near 77 area.
  • For now price may range between 85 - 95 level.

ES Hour chart analysis

  • ES falls below 200 Hour moving average.
  • Price is pausing at 78.6%. If this level does not hold price will fall towards 1256 level.
  • Getting support here may take price back towards 200 Hour moving average which is near 1271 level.


  • Nifty ends the day with a bullish engulfing pattern.
  • Price if opens and trades higher this pattern will be effective.
  • Nifty at the top of the range and price near 50 Hour moving average.
  • So for today's up move to continue price should give a breakout and stay above these two crucial levels.
  • Daily close above these levels will favor bulls.
  • Unable to break above 50 Hour moving average will be negative for bulls.

RELIANCE Intraday Update

  • Reliance staying above 50 Hour moving average will favor bulls.
  • If stock sustains above 50 hour moving average stock may move towards 880 level.
  • Staying below 860 which is the 23.6% Fib level will favor bears again.


  • First chart shows the effect of 20 DMA on SBI.
  • Price not able to touch 20 DMA Its selling off when ever it comes near this moving average.
  • Price continue to make newer lows.
  • For Bulls of this expiry they will get relief only if price manages to stay above 2165 and 20 Day Moving average.
  • Last chart shows a long term view. The big up trend which ended at 3500 and the beginning of  a long term down trend . This view will only change if stock changes the structure and give higher high and higher low's. Which is unlikely to happen in the near future. In the short term long trades may be attempted on a close above 20 day moving average.

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

  • Daily chart shows price getting resisted and closing below 20 day moving average.
  • Hour chart shows price unable to reach its 200 hour moving average and closing below the 50 hour moving average.
  • Shorter time frames are showing weakness.
  • If price continue to sustain below 20 DMA then this up move started from 200 DMA will loose momentum.

APPLE Channel and 200 DMA

  • AAPL fell below 200 DMA and is trying to break above it again.
  • Usually when price retraces towards a broken Moving average it faces selling pressure.
  • 330 area will be tough for bulls to cross on closing basis. If they manage to make a positive closing then price may move towards the top of the channel shown in 2nd chart.