July 29, 2011

SPY Fibonacci levels and cloud analysis

  • SPY Four hour chart with Fibonacci levels for the rise from 126.19 to 135.70
  • Price has taken support near 78.6% Fib level for the above mentioned level.
  • Price closing above this level may stop a larger correction from happening.
  • But price has broken below the cloud in this time frame. So cloud will act as resistance until it is broken. Bigger up move will happen only when price breaks and closes above the cloud.

S&P 500 Hits 200 DMA

  • SPX hits and bounces from 200 DMA.
  • If price holds this level one may see a good rally favoring bulls.
  • On the contrary daily close below 200 DMA will be fatal for bulls.

ES Hour chart analysis

  • Positive divergence shown below is starting to show its effect.
  • If the falling wedge like pattern shown above is broken on the upside we may see ES moving towards 1310 levels again.
  • SPX looks like it will bounce from 200 SMA. So ES might extend gains for bulls here.
  • ES Hour and MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • If price does not make new lows we may see an up move.
  • But price is trending down below 50 Hour moving average.
  • So a meaningful rally may happen only if price is able to stay above 50 hour moving average.

NIFTY Fibonacci level

  • Nifty Fibonacci levels for the rise from 5195 - 5740
  • Price is pausing @ 50% Fibonacci level.
  • So slide will continue only if price closes below 50% level next target for which is 5403 area.

NIFTY Time Frame Comparison

  • Nifty daily chart with MACD indicator is showing a sell signal. If day low is taken out the selling might get intense.
  • But hour chart with MACD is showing as if it will give a buy signal.
  • So before one trade the hour chart they should have the daily signal in mind. So the buy signal in hour chart may come But one should look at the price range first which is 5453 - 5520. So buy signal might only get confirmed if 5520 gets broken on the upside.
  • One who goes long based on hour chart should book profits at appropriate levels before the daily sell signal comes into effect.
  • Moral: one should look at price first then Indicator

NIFTY Closed below 50 DMA

  • Price has closed below 50 day moving average.
  • Closing price is also below 5 Day Low Ema.
  • If price continue to stay below these levels it will move towards the lower Bollinger band shown in weekly time frame.
  • Bulls need to go back above 50 DMA.
  • 5 DAY Low EMA is @ 5527
  • 50 DMA is @ 5518

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

  • SPX Daily time frame shows a likely hit @ the 200 DMA if 1295 does not hold.
  • If 1295 holds we may get an up move soon.
  • Hour chart is looking weak as Hourly 200 Moving average is acting as resistance.
  • 30 minutes char too looks bearish. As price is trending down below the cloud.

EURUSD Trend update

  • Daily chart of EURUSD shows a bearish engulfing pattern.
  • Price in hour chart is trading below the cloud. Indicating a sell on rise price action.
  • Price is testing its 200 Hour moving average. Trend will completely turn bearish if price sustains below 200 Hour moving average.
  • Staying above 1.4330 level may give an up move for the pair.