July 31, 2011

Microsoft Weekend Update

  • Microsoft weekly chart has hit the resistance line.
  • Price has given a Pin Bar Formation in weekly chart it has come at the resistance line. Pin Bar's are powerful reversal candles. 
  • Daily chart with MACD bars is showing negative divergence. MACD may confirm a sell signal next week. Negative divergence may give good correction.
  • One thing that's in favor of bulls is the presence of 200 DMA. So larger correction will be possible only at the break of 200 DMA.

July 30, 2011

S&P 500 Weekend update

  • Click the charts to enlarge.
  • Conclusion: It will be safe to stay long above 50 Day Moving Average. Shorts are safe below 200 DMA. But shorts should keep in mind the weekly trend line or the support line of the wedge in weekly chart.

NIFTY Weekend Update

  • Description is clearly mentioned in the chart so click the charts to enlarge.
  • Conclusion: Stay short below 50 DMA. Price staying below Day low EMA will also help bears. Close above 50 DMA will be negative for bears. Strength for bulls only above 5605 level. One can also try to sell on rise. 5530 - 5560 is a shorting zone. But once hour starts to close above 5560 levels it will be risky for bears to remain short.

July 29, 2011

SPY Fibonacci levels and cloud analysis

  • SPY Four hour chart with Fibonacci levels for the rise from 126.19 to 135.70
  • Price has taken support near 78.6% Fib level for the above mentioned level.
  • Price closing above this level may stop a larger correction from happening.
  • But price has broken below the cloud in this time frame. So cloud will act as resistance until it is broken. Bigger up move will happen only when price breaks and closes above the cloud.

S&P 500 Hits 200 DMA

  • SPX hits and bounces from 200 DMA.
  • If price holds this level one may see a good rally favoring bulls.
  • On the contrary daily close below 200 DMA will be fatal for bulls.

ES Hour chart analysis

  • Positive divergence shown below is starting to show its effect.
  • If the falling wedge like pattern shown above is broken on the upside we may see ES moving towards 1310 levels again.
  • SPX looks like it will bounce from 200 SMA. So ES might extend gains for bulls here.
  • ES Hour and MACD is showing positive divergence.
  • If price does not make new lows we may see an up move.
  • But price is trending down below 50 Hour moving average.
  • So a meaningful rally may happen only if price is able to stay above 50 hour moving average.

NIFTY Fibonacci level

  • Nifty Fibonacci levels for the rise from 5195 - 5740
  • Price is pausing @ 50% Fibonacci level.
  • So slide will continue only if price closes below 50% level next target for which is 5403 area.

NIFTY Time Frame Comparison

  • Nifty daily chart with MACD indicator is showing a sell signal. If day low is taken out the selling might get intense.
  • But hour chart with MACD is showing as if it will give a buy signal.
  • So before one trade the hour chart they should have the daily signal in mind. So the buy signal in hour chart may come But one should look at the price range first which is 5453 - 5520. So buy signal might only get confirmed if 5520 gets broken on the upside.
  • One who goes long based on hour chart should book profits at appropriate levels before the daily sell signal comes into effect.
  • Moral: one should look at price first then Indicator

NIFTY Closed below 50 DMA

  • Price has closed below 50 day moving average.
  • Closing price is also below 5 Day Low Ema.
  • If price continue to stay below these levels it will move towards the lower Bollinger band shown in weekly time frame.
  • Bulls need to go back above 50 DMA.
  • 5 DAY Low EMA is @ 5527
  • 50 DMA is @ 5518

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

  • SPX Daily time frame shows a likely hit @ the 200 DMA if 1295 does not hold.
  • If 1295 holds we may get an up move soon.
  • Hour chart is looking weak as Hourly 200 Moving average is acting as resistance.
  • 30 minutes char too looks bearish. As price is trending down below the cloud.

EURUSD Trend update

  • Daily chart of EURUSD shows a bearish engulfing pattern.
  • Price in hour chart is trading below the cloud. Indicating a sell on rise price action.
  • Price is testing its 200 Hour moving average. Trend will completely turn bearish if price sustains below 200 Hour moving average.
  • Staying above 1.4330 level may give an up move for the pair.

July 28, 2011

GOOGLE Pausing at the Resistance line

  • Google Weekly chart with resistance line connecting the tops 747 and 642.
  • Price has made a high of 627 and is not able to stay above this trend line.
  • Bulls has to close the week above this trend line to continue the bullish momentum.
  • Unable to cross the resistance line will result in a correction.

AAPL Intraday Update

  • Apple is testing its 50 hour moving average.
  • Price has taken support at the cloud as shown in second chart.
  • Hour chart is showing a GAP between 378 - 384
  • So price may get attracted to this GAP.
  • Larger correction will be possible only if price close below the cloud. 

GOLD Negative Divergence

  • Positive divergence on the left side did well.
  • We have negative divergence now.
  • Considering the larger trend of gold Positive divergence trades are safer to execute.
  • If price stays below 1600 this one may give a correction to 1585 levels.

ES Near support level

  • ES Four hour time frame with support level.
  • Good support exist between 1290 - 1295 level.
  • 200 Period moving average for Four Hour time frame is near this level.
  • Price staying below 200 Period moving average will favor bears for a breakdown below 1290 level.
  • If Price stays above 1305 level then Bulls will be able to push price higher.

NIFTY Intraday Update

  • Nifty hour is trading below its 200 Hour moving average. Last two dips after the up move from 5195 has taken Support at this moving average.
  • 15 Minutes chart shows a trending move below Ichomoku cloud. Intraday strength only if price manages to stay above the cloud in this time frame.

NIFTY Testing 50 DMA

  • Nifty testing 50 DMA again.
  • Possible Fibonacci support levels below 5496 are 5468 and 5404
  • USDINR is testing its support level. I have done a post on USDINR in the Forex Blog - CLICK HERE TO SEE IT

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell

  • 50 Day Moving average is broken on closing basis.
  • 200 Hour moving average is broken
  • Price has closed below the cloud in hour time frame.
  • Next important support @ 1295
  • Bears will become more active below 1295.

NFLX Cloud and Trend line analysis

  • NFLX Despite the correction of this week has managed to stay above important trend lines and clouds
  • Price is Moving strong above the weekly cloud. Daily cloud is acting like steps for the stock to continue its upward journey.
  • For a bigger correction to happen price should close below the weekly support line

July 27, 2011

DOW JONES Trend update

  • Dow closing the hour and sustaining below 38.2% Fib level will push it towards 50% Fib level.
  • Price staying below 200 Hour moving average will favor bears.
  • Price has broken the trend line in hour chart next important support is at 12296 levels.